NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10NO

19-42

115105

UTAH

18-42

NBASat, Feb 28FinalSeriesNO leads series 2-0VegasNO -5.5

NO · top performer

Saddiq Bey

G · #41

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Isaiah Collier

G · #8

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 1:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	36	17	7-16	3-8	—	+16	8	7
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	11	4	1-2	—	2-2	+7	1	2
D. JordanC · #9	13	3	1-2	—	1-2	+4	7	0
S. BeyG · #41	39	24	7-16	3-8	7-10	+11	5	6
B. McGowensG · #11	33	18	6-14	4-10	2-2	+9	4	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	25	8	3-4	0-1	2-2	-3	6	5
D. QueenC · #22	19	7	3-4	—	1-2	+2	9	3
Y. MissiC · #21	12	5	2-3	—	1-3	+3	3	1
J. PooleG · #3	15	11	4-8	3-7	—	-10	3	1
M. PeavyG · #14	1	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	1	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	0	0
J. FearsG · #0	34	18	5-14	2-8	6-6	+17	11	5
Team		115	39-85	15-44	22-29		58	32
DNP: K. Looney

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. HinsonF · #2	16	8	3-6	2-3	—	-6	5	0
K. FilipowskiF · #22	29	12	2-10	0-5	8-9	-10	6	1
C. WilliamsF · #5	21	4	2-5	—	—	-18	2	2
K. GeorgeG · #3	23	17	4-11	1-6	8-10	-15	2	4
A. BaileyG · #19	30	13	4-16	3-8	2-2	-4	8	2
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	9	3	1-4	1-4	—	-6	2	2
B. SensabaughF · #28	26	10	4-16	2-8	0-1	-1	4	1
O. TshiebweC · #34	9	0	0-1	—	—	+6	3	0
J. KoncharG · #55	15	3	1-3	1-3	—	+7	2	0
E. HarklessG · #16	28	14	5-9	2-4	2-3	+8	3	5
I. CollierG · #8	33	21	7-15	0-2	7-8	-11	3	7
Team		105	33-96	12-43	27-33		40	24
DNP: M. Bamba, S. Mykhailiuk

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

39-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-96

FG %

15-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-43

22-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO leads series 2-0

Feb 27

NO129@

UTAH118

Mar 1

NO115@

UTAH105today

Apr 8

UTAH137@

NO156

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

244.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO-21869%

UTAH+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -5.5↗SpreadBet NO -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

244.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat UTAH 115-105. S. Bey led with 24 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. NO outscored the other side 38-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 55

Bench(7)

49 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST

GS 43

UTAHstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

51 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH1st Quarter · 1:50 · 23-19

+8pp→ 26% WP

Jordan Poole · out of bounds lost ball turnover

NO4th Quarter · 7:24 · 97-84

+7pp→ 99% WP

Yves Missi · misses free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	27	38	24	26	115
UTAH	22	18	33	32	105

Period scoring

NO won 2 · UTAH won 2

Bey 8

Bailey 7

Bey 10

Jones 8

Poole 8

George 12

McGowens 9

Hinson 21

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

46%

39-85

34%

33-96

34%

15-44

3PT

28%

12-43

76%

22-29

82%

27-33

Play-by-play · 503 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·1.5
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·1.5
Brice Sensabaugh misses 13-foot jumper
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·2.2
Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·5.0
Elijah Harkless misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·15.6
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·18.8
Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·29.7
Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)
·
NO 115·UTAH 105
Q4·30.7
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
NO 115·UTAH 102
Q4·33.8
Brice Sensabaugh misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
NO 115·UTAH 102
Q4·40.8
Karlo Matkovic makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 115·UTAH 102
Q4·40.8
Karlo Matkovic makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 114·UTAH 102
Q4·40.8
Kyle Filipowski loose ball foul
NO 113·UTAH 102
Q4·40.8
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 113·UTAH 102
Q4·42.3
Jordan Hawkins misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
NO 113·UTAH 102
Q4·50.9
Micah Peavy defensive rebound
NO 113·UTAH 102
Q4·52.4
Elijah Harkless misses free throw 3 of 3
NO 113·UTAH 102
Q4·52.4
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 2 of 3
NO 113·UTAH 102
Q4·52.4
Elijah Harkless makes free throw 1 of 3
NO 113·UTAH 101
Q4·52.4
Micah Peavy shooting foul
NO 113·UTAH 100
Q4·1:04
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 113·UTAH 100
Q4·1:04
Micah Peavy enters the game for Saddiq Bey
·
NO 112·UTAH 100
Q4·1:04
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Herbert Jones
· ·
NO 112·UTAH 100
Q4·1:04
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 112·UTAH 100
Q4·1:04
Kyle Filipowski shooting foul
NO 111·UTAH 100
Q4·1:24
Isaiah Collier makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
NO 111·UTAH 100
Q4·1:33
Karlo Matkovic offensive foul turnover
NO 111·UTAH 98
Q4·1:33
Karlo Matkovic offensive foul
NO 111·UTAH 98
Q4·1:44
Elijah Harkless makes two point shot
NO 111·UTAH 98

Betting line

NO -5.5·O/U 244.5·NO -218/UTAH +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 115–105.

NO -5.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 244.5 by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

UTAH

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.6%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR