NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9TOR

TOR

35-25

134125

WSH

16-43

NBASat, Feb 28FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasTOR -13.5

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

27.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Will Riley

G · #27

13.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	34	24	9-14	1-1	5-6	+11	5	5
R. BarrettF · #9	33	21	8-15	1-3	4-6	+12	5	3
S. BarnesF · #4	29	18	7-13	0-1	4-4	+3	4	4
J. PoeltlC · #19	26	18	7-7	—	4-5	+18	10	3
I. QuickleyG · #5	37	27	10-15	2-7	5-5	+7	2	11
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	16	7	3-5	0-2	1-1	+3	3	0
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	3	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
J. BattleF · #77	17	6	2-4	2-3	—	-11	4	0
J. SheadG · #23	22	7	3-7	1-2	—	+9	1	3
J. WalterG · #14	24	6	2-5	2-3	—	0	1	2
Team		134	51-85	9-22	23-27		35	31
DNP: G. Temple, G. Dick

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. VukcevicF · #00	19	13	4-6	3-5	2-2	+3	3	3
K. GeorgeF · #18	15	14	5-7	3-3	1-2	+2	3	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	21	12	4-9	2-4	2-2	-4	3	5
B. CoulibalyG · #0	23	14	6-10	2-3	0-2	-4	5	4
T. JohnsonG · #12	19	8	3-6	1-3	1-2	-7	3	0
Bench
A. GillF · #16	28	8	4-11	0-3	—	-5	5	3
J. ChampagnieF · #9	22	12	6-11	0-2	—	-13	5	2
S. CooperG · #13	18	4	1-4	0-1	2-2	+4	2	2
J. WatkinsG · #5	21	10	4-5	2-3	0-1	0	2	0
J. HardyG · #8	20	11	4-9	2-5	1-1	-5	0	0
W. RileyG · #27	35	19	6-10	1-2	6-7	-16	4	3
Team		125	47-88	16-34	15-21		35	23
DNP: A. Sarr

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

51-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-88

FG %

9-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-34

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Nov 22

WSH110@

TOR140

Dec 27

TOR117@

WSH138

Mar 1

TOR134@

WSH125today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-90090%

WSH+60014%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -13.5↗SpreadBet TOR -13.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat WSH 134-125. I. Quickley paced them with 27 PTS, 2 REB, 11 AST. TOR outscored the other side 37-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 26 REB · 26 AST

GS 102

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 18

WSHstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 17 REB · 13 AST

GS 51

Bench(6)

64 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 48

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 6:35 · 40-49

+8pp→ 54% WP

Bilal Coulibaly · misses free throw 2 of 2

WSH2nd Quarter · 5:12 · 45-50

+7pp→ 39% WP

Will Riley · makes free throw 1 of 3

WSH2nd Quarter · 3:47 · 50-57

+7pp→ 42% WP

Kyshawn George · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	25	36	37	36	134
WSH	33	31	28	33	125

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · WSH won 1

Ingram 8

Carrington 6

Poeltl 7

Coulibaly 18

Ingram 9

George 5

Quickley 11

Riley 12

TOR

WSH

Shooting comparison

TOR

WSH

60%

51-85

53%

47-88

41%

9-22

3PT

47%

16-34

85%

23-27

71%

15-21

Play-by-play · 454 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 134·WSH 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 134·WSH 125
Q4·20.9
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 134·WSH 125
Q4·20.9
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 134·WSH 124
Q4·20.9
Ja'Kobe Walter shooting foul
TOR 134·WSH 123
Q4·32.2
Wizards defensive team rebound
TOR 134·WSH 123
Q4·35.4
Immanuel Quickley misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 134·WSH 123
Q4·54.7
Will Riley makes 7-foot two point shot
TOR 134·WSH 123
Q4·1:10
Immanuel Quickley makes driving layup
TOR 134·WSH 121
Q4·1:22
Jaden Hardy personal foul
TOR 132·WSH 121
Q4·1:42
Jamir Watkins makes 1-foot driving dunk
TOR 132·WSH 121
Q4·1:53
shot clock turnover
TOR 132·WSH 119
Q4·1:53
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 132·WSH 119
Q4·1:53
Jamal Shead misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 132·WSH 119
Q4·2:20
Will Riley makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 132·WSH 119
Q4·2:36
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
TOR 132·WSH 116
Q4·2:36
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
TOR 132·WSH 116
Q4·2:36
Sharife Cooper enters the game for Justin Champagnie
·
TOR 132·WSH 116
Q4·2:36
Jakob Poeltl offensive foul turnover
TOR 132·WSH 116
Q4·2:36
Jakob Poeltl offensive foul
TOR 132·WSH 116
Q4·2:45
Will Riley makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 132·WSH 116
Q4·2:45
Wizards offensive team rebound
TOR 132·WSH 115
Q4·2:45
Will Riley misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 132·WSH 115
Q4·2:45
RJ Barrett shooting foul
TOR 132·WSH 115
Q4·3:02
Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)
·
TOR 132·WSH 115
Q4·3:20
Justin Champagnie makes 13-foot two point shot
TOR 129·WSH 115
Q4·3:40
Jamison Battle enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 129·WSH 113
Q4·3:40
Anthony Gill enters the game for Tristan Vukcevic
·
TOR 129·WSH 113
Q4·3:40
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 129·WSH 113
Q4·3:40
Wizards Full timeout
TOR 129·WSH 113

Betting line

TOR -13.5·O/U 229.5·TOR -900/WSH +600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 134–125.

WSH +13.5 cashed (TOR won by 9). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

WSH

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR