NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16CHA

POR

29-32

93109

CHA

30-31

NBASat, Feb 28FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasCHA -6.5

POR · top performer

Jrue Holiday

G · #5

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

16.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	32	21	9-18	3-9	—	-20	1	2
T. CamaraF · #33	33	12	4-10	2-8	2-4	-21	6	2
K. MurrayF · #24	17	2	1-5	0-2	—	-15	4	0
D. ClinganC · #23	26	7	3-6	1-2	—	-14	8	2
J. HolidayG · #5	33	25	9-16	3-8	4-4	0	5	4
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	17	5	1-2	—	3-4	-4	6	2
Y. HansenC · #16	2	2	1-2	0-1	—	0	1	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	12	5	2-4	1-3	—	+3	3	2
V. KrejciG · #27	26	4	1-6	1-4	1-2	+1	1	2
J. CookeG · #18	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. HendersonG · #00	23	8	3-12	0-7	2-3	-10	3	4
B. WesleyG · #1	11	2	1-3	0-2	—	+2	1	1
S. CissokoG · #91	7	0	0-2	0-1	0-2	0	0	1
Team		93	35-86	11-47	12-19		39	22
DNP: D. Avdija

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	32	14	5-11	2-6	2-2	+13	8	5
M. DiabateF · #14	33	13	5-7	—	3-4	+24	11	5
B. MillerF · #24	33	26	9-19	6-12	2-2	-1	8	2
L. BallG · #1	30	15	6-19	2-7	1-1	+17	4	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	29	10	4-11	2-7	0-3	+24	8	1
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	14	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	3	1
X. TillmanF · #26	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	2	1-4	—	0-2	-8	7	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
C. WhiteG · #3	21	20	5-13	2-5	8-9	+1	3	1
J. GreenG · #10	15	6	2-3	1-2	1-2	-3	3	0
T. MannG · #23	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
S. JamesG · #4	14	3	1-3	1-2	—	+6	0	0
Team		109	38-91	16-42	17-25		55	24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

35-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-91

FG %

11-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

12-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Feb 28

POR93@

CHA109today

Mar 11

CHA103@

POR101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+22031%

CHA-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗SpreadBet CHA -6.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat POR 109-93. B. Miller paced them with 26 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 29-17 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 24 REB · 10 AST

GS 46

Bench(8)

26 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 19

CHAstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 39 REB · 21 AST

GS 65

Bench(8)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 12:00 · 67-74

+11pp→ 14% WP

Kon Knueppel · enters the game for Josh Green

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	17	26	24	26	93
CHA	29	22	23	35	109

Period scoring

POR won 2 · CHA won 2

Grant 6

Miller 7

Holiday 10

Miller 12

Grant 8

Miller 7

Holiday 6

Camara 15

POR

CHA

Shooting comparison

POR

CHA

41%

35-86

42%

38-91

23%

11-47

3PT

38%

16-42

63%

12-19

68%

17-25

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·16.9
Blake Wesley bad pass turnover (Sion James steals)
·
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·25.8
Pat Connaughton out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·43.4
Kris Murray out of bounds lost ball turnover
·
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·43.4
Kris Murray offensive rebound
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·45.5
Yang Hansen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·59.1
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes alley oop dunk (Tre Mann assists)
·
POR 93·CHA 109
Q4·1:16
Javonte Cooke enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Sion James enters the game for Coby White
·
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Tre Mann enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Pat Connaughton enters the game for Miles Bridges
·
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Hornets Full timeout
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Moussa Diabate defensive goaltending violation
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Yang Hansen makes two point shot
POR 93·CHA 107
Q4·1:16
Yang Hansen offensive rebound
POR 91·CHA 107
Q4·1:17
Toumani Camara misses 27-foot three point jumper
POR 91·CHA 107
Q4·1:34
Miles Bridges makes tip in dunk
POR 91·CHA 107
Q4·1:34
Miles Bridges offensive rebound
POR 91·CHA 105
Q4·1:37
Coby White misses 25-foot three point jumper
POR 91·CHA 105
Q4·2:01
Toumani Camara makes two point shot
POR 91·CHA 105
Q4·2:01
Toumani Camara offensive rebound
POR 89·CHA 105
+1pp
Q4·2:06
Blake Wesley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 89·CHA 105
Q4·2:15
Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 89·CHA 105
Q4·2:15
Yang Hansen enters the game for Vit Krejci
·
POR 89·CHA 104
Q4·2:15
Kris Murray enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
POR 89·CHA 104
Q4·2:15
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
POR 89·CHA 104
Q4·2:15
Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 89·CHA 104

Betting line

CHA -6.5·O/U 228.5·POR +220/CHA -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Portland Trail Blazers, 109–93.

CHA -6.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

CHA

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

45.9%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR