NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

CLE

37-24

119122

DET

44-14

NBAFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesDET leads series 2-1VegasDET -8.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

34.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 38pp · OT · 1:16

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	31	25	10-12	—	5-8	-9	9	4
E. MobleyC · #4	37	23	9-15	4-8	1-2	-5	12	1
D. SchroderG · #8	38	12	4-15	0-2	4-4	-15	1	9
S. MerrillG · #5	36	20	6-14	4-10	4-4	-13	1	3
J. TysonG · #20	41	15	5-10	4-7	1-2	-9	4	1
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	15	2	1-5	0-1	—	+1	2	0
T. BryantC · #3	16	13	5-12	1-3	2-3	+10	8	1
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	32	5	2-9	0-3	1-2	+13	4	12
T. ProctorG · #24	19	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+12	0	1
Team		119	43-94	13-35	20-27		41	32
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, D. Brown, K. Ellis

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	37	11	5-13	1-4	—	-1	5	5
D. RobinsonF · #55	34	8	3-9	2-8	—	+7	2	2
J. DurenC · #0	42	33	11-19	—	11-15	+14	16	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	37	25	11-21	0-3	3-5	+2	10	7
A. ThompsonG · #9	36	18	7-10	—	4-6	+7	8	5
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	11	4	2-4	0-1	—	-11	6	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	15	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	-6	3	0
J. GreenG · #31	7	2	1-4	0-3	—	+6	2	0
C. LeVertG · #8	17	1	0-1	—	1-2	-4	2	1
M. SasserG · #25	11	0	0-3	0-2	—	+1	1	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	19	8	2-10	1-3	3-3	0	1	1
Team		122	46-100	6-27	24-33		56	26
DNP: T. Smith, I. Stewart, I. Jones, K. Huerter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

43-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-100

FG %

13-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-27

20-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-33

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE wins series 4-3

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+27027%

DET-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -8.5↗SpreadBet DET -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CLE 122-119. J. Duren paced them with 33 PTS, 16 REB, 3 AST. CLE outscored the other side 35-27 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 27 REB · 18 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 14 REB · 14 AST

GS 24

DETstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 41 REB · 22 AST

GS 91

Bench(6)

27 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET4th Quarter · 10.9 · 113-111

+20pp→ 30% WP

Craig Porter Jr. · misses free throw 2 of 2

DET4th Quarter · 4.7 · 114-113

+25pp→ 45% WP

Daniss Jenkins · makes free throw 2 of 3

CLEOT · 1:16 · 119-120

+38pp→ 38% WP

Craig Porter Jr. · misses running layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CLE	35	19	30	30	5	119
DET	27	23	35	29	8	122

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · DET won 3

Allen 10

Cunningham 9

Merrill 5

Cunningham 8

Mobley 7

Thompson 10

Allen 8

Duren 11

Tyson 3

Duren 4

CLE

DET

Shooting comparison

CLE

DET

46%

43-94

46%

46-100

37%

13-35

3PT

22%

6-27

74%

20-27

73%

24-33

Play-by-play · 566 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CLE 119·DET 122
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CLE 119·DET 122
+0.7pp
OT·0.4
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 119·DET 122
OT·0.4
Evan Mobley misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 122
+12pp
OT·7.2
Marcus Sasser lost ball turnover (Sam Merrill steals)
·
CLE 119·DET 122
OT·7.2
Sam Merrill vs. Marcus Sasser (Dennis Schroder gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CLE 119·DET 122
−8pp
OT·14.6
Sam Merrill personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 122
+7pp
OT·14.6
Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
CLE 119·DET 122
+3pp
OT·17.1
Sam Merrill misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 122
+9pp
OT·21.5
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 119·DET 122
OT·21.9
Tobias Harris makes 8-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 122
+13pp
OT·41.0
Dennis Schroder bad pass turnover (Jalen Duren steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 119·DET 120
+10pp
OT·1:00
Cavaliers defensive team rebound
CLE 119·DET 120
−3pp
OT·1:00
Tobias Harris misses 8-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 120
−7pp
OT·1:15
(01:15) [Pistons] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Pistons] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 120
+27pp
OT·1:15
Pistons Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 120
−16pp
OT·1:16
Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound
CLE 119·DET 120
+3pp
OT·1:16
Craig Porter Jr. misses running layupBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 120
−38pp
OT·1:18
Marcus Sasser lost ball turnover (Craig Porter Jr. steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 119·DET 120
+16pp
OT·1:29
Dennis Schroder bad pass turnover (Tobias Harris steals)
·
CLE 119·DET 120
−0.5pp
OT·1:38
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
CLE 119·DET 120
OT·1:38
Duncan Robinson personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 120
−16pp
OT·1:46
Daniss Jenkins bad pass turnover (Jaylon Tyson steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 119·DET 120
−11pp
OT·1:53
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
CLE 119·DET 120
OT·1:53
Pistons Full timeout
CLE 119·DET 120
+0.5pp
OT·2:00
Dennis Schroder makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CLE 119·DET 120
−9pp
OT·2:11
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 117·DET 120
−2pp
OT·2:14
Jalen Duren misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 117·DET 120
−4pp
OT·2:37
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
CLE 117·DET 120
+2pp
OT·2:41
Craig Porter Jr. misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·DET 120
+6pp

Betting line

DET -8.5·O/U 227.5·CLE +270/DET -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 122–119 in overtime. Decided by 3.

CLE +8.5 cashed (DET won by 3). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

DET

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR