NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11NO

18-42

129118

UTAH

18-41

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesNO leads series 1-0VegasNO -6.5

NO · top performer

Saddiq Bey

G · #41

38.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Ace Bailey

G · #19

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	26	8	2-4	2-3	2-2	+11	1	6
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	20	9-15	—	2-3	+15	4	4
D. JordanC · #9	13	4	2-2	—	—	+8	7	0
D. MurrayG · #5	26	17	5-12	2-7	5-5	+16	3	9
S. BeyG · #41	34	42	14-20	5-9	9-9	+5	5	7
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	25	8	3-4	1-2	1-1	+4	4	0
D. QueenC · #22	20	7	2-7	0-1	3-4	-6	7	1
J. PooleG · #3	10	3	1-4	1-4	—	+2	2	3
B. McGowensG · #11	31	8	4-9	0-4	—	+5	5	3
J. FearsG · #0	22	12	4-11	2-4	2-3	-5	2	4
Team		129	46-88	13-34	24-27		40	37
DNP: K. Looney, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	18	13	5-7	2-3	1-2	-20	6	2
C. WilliamsF · #5	30	6	2-6	0-1	2-5	-9	3	1
J. KoncharG · #55	26	4	2-6	0-3	—	-13	5	1
I. CollierG · #8	27	11	5-11	0-1	1-2	-13	1	7
A. BaileyG · #19	29	23	9-17	2-6	3-3	-14	4	1
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	20	6	2-5	1-3	1-1	+1	8	4
B. HinsonF · #2	18	2	1-5	0-4	0-1	+3	0	1
B. SensabaughF · #28	25	20	7-13	3-8	3-5	-4	3	2
O. TshiebweC · #34	10	8	4-4	—	—	+8	2	0
S. MykhailiukG · #10	15	14	5-10	4-7	—	+4	2	3
E. HarklessG · #16	21	11	3-6	0-1	5-6	+2	3	6
Team		118	45-90	12-37	16-25		37	28
DNP: M. Bamba

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

46-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-90

FG %

13-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-37

24-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO leads series 1-0

Feb 27

NO129@

UTAH118today

Mar 1

NO115@

UTAH105

Apr 8

UTAH137@

NO156

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

245.5

High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO-23870%

UTAH+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -6.5↗SpreadBet NO -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

245.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat UTAH 129-118. S. Bey led the way with 42 points and 7 assists. NO outscored the other side 41-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 20 REB · 26 AST

GS 88

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 31

UTAHstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Bench(6)

61 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 54

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH1st Quarter · 1:31 · 29-35

+6pp→ 50% WP

Svi Mykhailiuk · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Blake Hinson assists)

UTAH2nd Quarter · 8:55 · 45-43

+12pp→ 31% WP

John Konchar · blocks Zion Williamson 's 9-foot running layup

NO3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 78-61

+14pp→ 96% WP

Ace Bailey · enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	37	41	25	26	129
UTAH	38	23	27	30	118

Period scoring

NO won 1 · UTAH won 3

Bey 12

Bailey 14

Williamson 11

Filipowski 8

Bey 7

Bailey 17

Bey 14

Sensabaugh 10

UTAH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

52%

46-88

50%

45-90

38%

13-34

3PT

32%

12-37

89%

24-27

64%

16-25

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 129·UTAH 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 129·UTAH 118
Q4·20.0
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Dejounte Murray
·
NO 129·UTAH 118
Q4·20.0
Jazz Full timeout
NO 129·UTAH 118
Q4·20.0
Brice Sensabaugh out of bounds bad pass turnover
NO 129·UTAH 118
Q4·31.6
Saddiq Bey makes two point shot (Zion Williamson assists)
· ·
NO 129·UTAH 118
Q4·45.3
Dejounte Murray defensive rebound
NO 127·UTAH 118
Q4·47.8
Karlo Matkovic blocks Elijah Harkless 's 4-foot driving layup
·
NO 127·UTAH 118
−0.6pp
Q4·55.9
Saddiq Bey makes driving layup (Zion Williamson assists)
· ·
NO 127·UTAH 118
−1pp
Q4·1:14
Zion Williamson defensive rebound
·
NO 125·UTAH 118
−0.6pp
Q4·1:18
Brice Sensabaugh misses 25-foot running jump shot
NO 125·UTAH 118
−2pp
Q4·1:22
Dejounte Murray bad pass turnover (Brice Sensabaugh steals)
·
NO 125·UTAH 118
+2pp
Q4·1:36
Oscar Tshiebwe makes running layup (Elijah Harkless assists)
·
NO 125·UTAH 118
+1pp
Q4·1:38
Elijah Harkless defensive rebound
NO 125·UTAH 116
Q4·1:41
Saddiq Bey misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
NO 125·UTAH 116
+0.5pp
Q4·1:56
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
NO 125·UTAH 116
Q4·1:59
Ace Bailey misses 25-foot running jump shot
NO 125·UTAH 116
−0.8pp
Q4·2:04
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
NO 125·UTAH 116
Q4·2:05
Zion Williamson misses driving layup
·
NO 125·UTAH 116
+0.5pp
Q4·2:25
Brice Sensabaugh makes 8-foot pullup jump shot
NO 125·UTAH 116
Q4·2:52
Saddiq Bey makes 29-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)
· ·
NO 125·UTAH 114
−2pp
Q4·3:10
Elijah Harkless makes running layup
NO 122·UTAH 114
+1pp
Q4·3:14
Dejounte Murray lost ball turnover (Elijah Harkless steals)
·
NO 122·UTAH 112
+0.8pp
Q4·3:32
Oscar Tshiebwe makes driving layup
NO 122·UTAH 112
−0.8pp
Q4·3:40
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Derik Queen
·
NO 122·UTAH 110
Q4·3:40
Ace Bailey enters the game for John Konchar
·
NO 122·UTAH 110
Q4·3:40
Derik Queen personal foul
NO 122·UTAH 110
+1pp
Q4·3:52
Derik Queen makes tip shot
NO 122·UTAH 110
Q4·3:52
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 120·UTAH 110
−0.8pp
Q4·3:56
Zion Williamson misses driving floating jump shot
·
NO 120·UTAH 110
+0.6pp

Betting line

NO -6.5·O/U 245.5·NO -238/UTAH +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 129–118.

NO -6.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 245.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Dejounte MurrayNO · G
USG%27.292

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

UTAH

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.6%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR