NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9POR

POR

29-31

121112

CHI

24-36

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPOR -3.5

POR · top performer

Jerami Grant

F · #9

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 1:57

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	35	27	6-10	3-4	12-14	+14	5	2
T. CamaraF · #33	36	16	4-14	2-9	6-6	-2	5	2
K. MurrayF · #24	28	10	5-13	0-5	—	-7	5	3
J. HolidayG · #5	32	10	4-15	0-7	2-2	-2	3	7
S. HendersonG · #00	24	12	6-12	0-5	—	-5	3	4
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	23	14	6-9	0-1	2-2	+21	14	1
M. ThybulleG · #4	12	5	2-4	1-3	—	+5	3	0
V. KrejciG · #27	19	14	5-10	3-8	1-1	+8	3	2
B. WesleyG · #1	14	10	3-4	0-1	4-6	+11	0	4
S. CissokoG · #91	17	3	1-4	1-3	—	+2	4	2
Team		121	42-95	10-46	27-31		45	27
DNP: D. Avdija, D. Clingan, Y. Hansen, J. Cooke

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	21	6	1-4	0-2	4-5	+3	5	1
I. OkoroF · #35	37	12	4-8	1-4	3-4	-6	5	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	36	20	6-16	2-8	6-9	-15	7	4
C. SextonG · #2	18	10	4-9	2-7	—	-7	0	3
J. GiddeyG · #3	28	15	6-9	2-4	1-1	+13	6	9
Bench
L. MillerF · #11	23	11	4-5	1-1	2-2	+2	3	2
N. RichardsC · #13	27	14	4-7	—	6-6	-12	10	1
T. JonesG · #30	27	19	9-15	0-1	1-3	0	3	4
R. DillinghamG · #7	23	5	2-7	1-3	—	-23	2	5
Team		112	40-80	9-30	23-30		41	29
DNP: M. McClung, Y. Kawamura, Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

42-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-80

FG %

10-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-30

27-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 20

CHI122@

POR121

Feb 27

POR121@

CHI112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR-17063%

CHI+14241%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -3.5↗SpreadBet POR -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat CHI 121-112. J. Grant paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. POR outscored the other side 37-29 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 24 REB · 9 AST

GS 46

CHIstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 42

Bench(4)

49 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 7:54 · 75-75

+7pp→ 47% WP

Josh Giddey · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)

POR3rd Quarter · 33.1 · 91-84

+10pp→ 83% WP

Matas Buzelis · offensive foul

POR4th Quarter · 1:57 · 111-105

+11pp→ 90% WP

Jerami Grant · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	32	37	24	28	121
CHI	34	29	23	26	112

Period scoring

POR won 3 · CHI won 1

Camara 7

Buzelis 8

Grant 16

Dillingham 17

Grant 5

Richards 6

Grant 6

Miller 7

POR

CHI

Shooting comparison

POR

CHI

44%

42-95

50%

40-80

22%

10-46

3PT

30%

9-30

87%

27-31

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 121·CHI 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 121·CHI 112
Q4·10.3
Matas Buzelis bad pass turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)
·
POR 121·CHI 112
Q4·18.4
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 121·CHI 112
Q4·18.4
Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 120·CHI 112
Q4·18.4
Josh Giddey personal take foul
POR 119·CHI 112
Q4·18.9
Matas Buzelis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
POR 119·CHI 112
Q4·25.8
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 119·CHI 109
Q4·25.8
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
POR 118·CHI 109
Q4·25.8
Rob Dillingham enters the game for Tre Jones
·
POR 118·CHI 109
Q4·25.8
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 118·CHI 109
Q4·25.8
Josh Giddey personal take foul
POR 117·CHI 109
Q4·29.1
Jerami Grant defensive rebound
POR 117·CHI 109
Q4·32.2
Robert Williams III blocks Tre Jones 's 2-foot driving layup
·
POR 117·CHI 109
−0.9pp
Q4·37.7
Toumani Camara makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 117·CHI 109
+0.9pp
Q4·37.7
Toumani Camara makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 116·CHI 109
Q4·37.7
Tre Jones personal take foul
POR 115·CHI 109
−2pp
Q4·42.6
Nick Richards makes dunk (Josh Giddey assists)
·
POR 115·CHI 109
+1pp
Q4·52.2
Jrue Holiday makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Kris Murray assists)
·
POR 115·CHI 107
−2pp
Q4·59.2
Kris Murray offensive rebound
POR 113·CHI 107
−3pp
Q4·1:00
Jrue Holiday misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 113·CHI 107
+2pp
Q4·1:22
Tre Jones makes driving layup (Josh Giddey assists)
·
POR 113·CHI 107
+2pp
Q4·1:27
Robert Williams III enters the game for Sidy Cissoko
·
POR 113·CHI 105
Q4·1:27
Josh Giddey enters the game for Leonard Miller
·
POR 113·CHI 105
Q4·1:27
Bulls Full timeout
POR 113·CHI 105
Q4·1:27
Kris Murray makes dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
POR 113·CHI 105
−2pp
Q4·1:33
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 111·CHI 105
−1pp
Q4·1:36
Matas Buzelis misses driving layup
POR 111·CHI 105
−4pp
Q4·1:57
Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 111·CHI 105
−11pp
Q4·2:08
Jrue Holiday offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 108·CHI 105
−6pp

Betting line

POR -3.5·O/U 235.5·POR -170/CHI +142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 121–112.

POR -3.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

CHI

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR