NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16SA

43-16

126110

BKN

15-43

NBAThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -10.5

SA · top performer

Julian Champagnie

F · #30

26.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Day'Ron Sharpe

C · #20

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	24	26	10-14	6-9	—	+13	2	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	12	3-9	0-4	6-6	+15	8	5
D. FoxG · #4	25	14	6-8	2-3	—	+17	1	6
D. VassellG · #24	28	14	5-10	4-6	—	+2	7	5
S. CastleG · #5	25	18	4-12	0-4	10-12	+9	2	5
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	16	3	1-5	1-3	—	+19	0	1
K. OlynykF · #8	3	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	8	6	2-3	2-3	—	-7	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	18	13	6-7	1-1	0-1	+10	4	0
C. BryantF · #11	13	0	0-6	0-4	—	-6	3	2
L. KornetC · #7	19	6	1-2	—	4-4	+2	7	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	6	2	1-2	0-1	—	-3	2	1
D. HarperG · #2	29	12	4-9	1-4	3-4	+10	3	7
Team		126	43-87	17-42	23-27		39	36
DNP: B. Biyombo

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	30	25	9-22	3-9	4-4	-7	14	1
N. ClowneyF · #21	30	11	4-7	3-4	—	-3	1	1
N. ClaxtonC · #33	24	12	5-8	0-1	2-2	-9	7	3
E. DeminG · #8	25	6	2-3	1-2	1-2	-3	5	9
N. TraoreG · #88	30	13	5-14	1-2	2-2	-8	2	3
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	5	9	3-4	3-4	—	+2	0	0
Z. WilliamsF · #1	13	2	1-4	0-1	—	-19	2	0
J. MinottF · #00	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	+2	0	1
D. WolfF · #2	22	14	4-8	2-4	4-5	-9	5	2
D. SharpeC · #20	19	14	6-10	0-1	2-2	-9	11	4
O. AgbajiG · #30	16	0	0-3	0-3	—	-13	2	1
D. PowellG · #4	21	4	2-4	0-1	—	-4	1	1
Team		110	41-89	13-34	15-17		50	26
DNP: T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

43-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-89

FG %

17-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-34

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Oct 26

BKN107@

SA118

Feb 27

SA126@

BKN110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-57585%

BKN+42519%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -10.5↗SpreadBet SA -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat BKN 126-110. J. Champagnie paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST. SA outscored the other side 36-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 20 REB · 23 AST

GS 87

Bench(8)

42 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

BKNstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 49

Bench(7)

43 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 37

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	36	35	33	22	126
BKN	22	34	28	26	110

Period scoring

SA won 3 · BKN won 1

Castle 13

Sharpe 7

Champagnie 14

Clowney 8

Fox 10

Jr. 17

III 6

Wolf 12

BKN

Shooting comparison

BKN

49%

43-87

46%

41-89

40%

17-42

3PT

38%

13-34

85%

23-27

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·1.5
shot clock turnover
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·23.2
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·25.5
Danny Wolf misses two point shot
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·29.6
Danny Wolf defensive rebound
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·32.3
Carter Bryant misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·41.2
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·45.1
Jalen Wilson misses 27-foot three point jumper
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·55.5
Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·59.0
Jordan McLaughlin misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·1:20
Jalen Wilson makes 29-foot running jump shot (Danny Wolf assists)
·
SA 126·BKN 110
Q4·1:25
Danny Wolf defensive rebound
SA 126·BKN 107
Q4·1:29
Dylan Harper misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 126·BKN 107
Q4·1:42
Danny Wolf makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 126·BKN 107
Q4·1:42
Nets offensive team rebound
SA 126·BKN 106
Q4·1:42
Danny Wolf misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 126·BKN 106
Q4·1:42
Lindy Waters III shooting foul
SA 126·BKN 106
Q4·2:00
Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
SA 126·BKN 106
Q4·2:18
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:22
Josh Minott misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:27
Carter Bryant bad pass turnover (Josh Minott steals)
·
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:40
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:43
Ochai Agbaji misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:45
Danny Wolf offensive rebound
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:49
Josh Minott misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·2:55
Jordan McLaughlin personal foul
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·3:05
Dylan Harper lost ball turnover (Josh Minott steals)
·
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·3:20
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 123·BKN 106
Q4·3:20
Spurs Full timeout
SA 123·BKN 106

Betting line

SA -10.5·O/U 223.5·SA -575/BKN +425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 126–110.

SA -10.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Julius RandleBKN
17.3± 6.4high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high
Day'Ron SharpeBKN
6.5± 2.5high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Ben SarafBKN
3.7± 1.9high

Blocks

Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Trevon ScottBKN
0.8± 1.3low
Noah ClowneyBKN
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high
Trevon ScottBKN
1.3± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

BKN

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR