OKC
45-15
DET
43-14
OKC · top performer
Jaylin Williams
F · #6
30
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
DET · top performer
Jalen Duren
C · #0
29
Pts
15
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 4:37
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 30 | 9-14 | 5-10 | 7-7 | -15 | 11 | 4 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | — | -6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-5 | — | -15 | 3 | 4 | |
| 35 | 20 | 6-16 | 2-7 | 6-7 | +4 | 4 | 6 | |
| 30 | 23 | 9-17 | 3-6 | 2-2 | -16 | 2 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | +6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | +11 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 13 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | -2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 30 | 20 | 6-16 | 4-10 | 4-4 | +4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-3 | — | — | -11 | 2 | 4 | |
| Team | 116 | 39-96 | 18-49 | 20-21 | 37 | 28 | ||
| DNP: A. Caruso | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | — | +2 | 8 | 1 | |
| 30 | 16 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 5-5 | +15 | 3 | 3 | |
| 31 | 29 | 12-17 | — | 5-7 | +12 | 15 | 2 | |
| 38 | 29 | 11-16 | 3-5 | 4-4 | +17 | 4 | 13 | |
| 28 | 11 | 5-7 | — | 1-4 | +15 | 4 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 8 | 3-7 | — | 2-4 | -4 | 6 | 0 | |
| 16 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-3 | — | -2 | 5 | 2 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | — | +9 | 4 | 0 | |
| 17 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -11 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 | — | -7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 124 | 48-89 | 9-27 | 19-26 | 52 | 29 | ||
| DNP: T. Smith, I. Stewart, I. Jones, M. Sasser | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
54
28
Ast
29
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
DET
Home
39-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-89
41
FG %
54
18-49
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-27
20-21
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-26
28
Assists
29
13
Turnovers
15
Season series
DET leads series 1-0
OKC116@DET124todayDET110@OKC114Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
220.5
Standard · -5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC+34023%DET-44081%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
220.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DET beat OKC 124-116. J. Duren paced them with 29 PTS, 15 REB, 2 AST. DET outscored the other side 36-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
79 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST
GS 62
Bench(6)
37 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 26
DETstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 34 REB · 26 AST
GS 89
Bench(6)
35 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJared McCain · misses driving floating jump shot
Paul Reed · loose ball foul
Javonte Green · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 34 | 18 | 28 | 36 | 116 |
| DET | 22 | 36 | 36 | 30 | 124 |
Period scoring
OKC won 2 · DET won 2
Q1
Williams 7
Duren 8
Q2
Williams 9
Duren 10
Q3
McCain 10
Cunningham 7
Q4
Williams 14
Cunningham 13
Shooting comparison
41%
39-96
FG
54%
48-89
37%
18-49
3PT
33%
9-27
95%
20-21
FT
73%
19-26
Play-by-play · 503 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 116·DET 124
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 116·DET 124
- Q4·8.8
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
OKC 116·DET 124
- Q4·10.1
Kenrich Williams misses tip shot
·
OKC 116·DET 124
- Q4·12.1
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
OKC 116·DET 124
- Q4·13.2
Nikola Topic misses driving layup
OKC 116·DET 124
+0.6pp
- Q4·20.9
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 116·DET 124
−0.5pp
- Q4·20.9
Nikola Topic enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 116·DET 123
- Q4·20.9
Buddy Boeheim enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
·
OKC 116·DET 123
- Q4·20.9
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort
· ·
OKC 116·DET 123
- Q4·20.9
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
OKC 116·DET 123
- Q4·20.9
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 116·DET 123
- Q4·20.9
Cason Wallace personal foul
OKC 116·DET 122
+1pp
- Q4·23.9
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
OKC 116·DET 122
- Q4·23.9
Jaylin Williams out of bounds bad pass turnover
·
OKC 116·DET 122
+3pp
- Q4·28.8
Jared McCain enters the game for Kenrich Williams
· ·
OKC 116·DET 122
- Q4·28.8
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
OKC 116·DET 122
- Q4·28.8
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 116·DET 122
- Q4·28.8
Jalen Duren makes 3-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
OKC 116·DET 122
+5pp
- Q4·39.2
Aaron Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 116·DET 120
+5pp
- Q4·39.2
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jared McCain
· ·
OKC 115·DET 120
- Q4·39.2
Aaron Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 115·DET 120
−1pp
- Q4·39.2
Jalen Duren shooting foulBIG MOMENT
OKC 114·DET 120
−7pp
- Q4·46.8
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Luguentz Dort steals)
·
OKC 114·DET 120
−3pp
- Q4·49.6
Cason Wallace lost ball turnover (Cade Cunningham steals)
·
OKC 114·DET 120
+4pp
- Q4·57.2
Cade Cunningham makes 5-foot two point shot
OKC 114·DET 120
+5pp
- Q4·1:12
Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 114·DET 118
+5pp
- Q4·1:12
Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 113·DET 118
−5pp
- Q4·1:12
Cade Cunningham shooting foul
OKC 112·DET 118
−3pp
- Q4·1:12
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
OKC 112·DET 118
−0.7pp
Betting line
DET -10.5·O/U 220.5·OKC +340/DET -440
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 124–116.
OKC +10.5 cashed (DET won by 8). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 19.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+
Cade CunninghamDET · GTOUCHES9799+- Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.596
Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.092
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Jalen WilliamsOKC16.0± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Jalen WilliamsOKC4.8± 2.9high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
- Paul ReedDET0.9± 1.3high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
DET
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
48.0%
118.5
PPG
114.9
115.9
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.0
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3