NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9OKC

OKC

45-14

116107

TOR

34-24

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTOR -1.5

OKC · top performer

Cason Wallace

G · #22

24.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 4:53

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	26	11	5-8	—	1-1	+4	9	0
C. HolmgrenC · #7	30	7	3-8	0-1	1-1	-12	9	4
I. JoeG · #11	33	22	7-14	6-11	2-2	+6	2	3
L. DortG · #5	34	15	5-16	3-9	2-2	+16	5	3
C. WallaceG · #22	35	27	11-16	4-5	1-2	+5	8	7
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	16	2	1-2	0-1	—	+5	8	3
A. CarusoG · #9	23	16	6-10	2-5	2-2	+22	2	4
K. WilliamsG · #34	11	0	0-4	0-2	—	-2	1	1
A. WigginsG · #21	17	8	4-10	0-4	—	+4	1	1
J. McCainG · #3	10	5	2-5	0-1	1-2	-9	4	0
N. TopicG · #44	6	3	1-2	1-1	—	+6	0	0
Team		116	45-95	16-40	10-12		49	26
DNP: B. Boeheim, B. Barnhizer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	15	6-14	2-4	1-3	-23	6	6
R. BarrettF · #9	34	21	8-15	4-6	1-2	-1	8	4
S. BarnesF · #4	32	15	7-17	0-3	1-1	+18	3	7
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	30	4	1-1	—	2-2	-15	4	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	17	6-14	4-9	1-2	-2	3	4
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	15	3	1-7	1-4	—	-3	2	1
J. BattleF · #77	9	2	1-3	0-1	—	-2	1	1
J. SheadG · #23	23	13	5-8	2-4	1-2	-2	1	4
J. WalterG · #14	23	17	6-9	5-7	—	-9	4	1
G. DickG · #1	6	0	—	—	—	-6	2	0
Team		107	41-88	18-38	7-12		34	30
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

45-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-88

FG %

16-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-38

10-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 26

TOR103@

OKC101

Feb 25

OKC116@

TOR107today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-10852%

TOR-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat TOR 116-107. C. Wallace paced them with 27 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. OKC outscored the other side 35-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 75

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 19

TORstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST

GS 59

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 5:18 · 101-96

+12pp→ 29% WP

Jaylin Williams · shooting foul

OKC4th Quarter · 4:53 · 101-98

+15pp→ 73% WP

Brandon Ingram · misses 15-foot pullup jump shot

TOR4th Quarter · 4:06 · 101-101

+14pp→ 45% WP

Jamal Shead · makes 27-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	25	35	38	18	116
TOR	32	19	29	27	107

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · TOR won 2

Dort 5

Barrett 11

Wallace 13

Walter 6

Joe 19

Walter 9

Wallace 7

Shead 10

OKC

TOR

Shooting comparison

OKC

TOR

47%

45-95

47%

41-88

40%

16-40

3PT

47%

18-38

83%

10-12

58%

7-12

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 116·TOR 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 116·TOR 107
Q4·1.3
shot clock turnover
OKC 116·TOR 107
Q4·27.1
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
OKC 116·TOR 107
Q4·27.1
Immanuel Quickley misses 24-foot fade away jump shot
OKC 116·TOR 107
Q4·31.6
Chet Holmgren makes dunk
OKC 116·TOR 107
Q4·31.6
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
OKC 114·TOR 107
−2pp
Q4·33.8
Chet Holmgren misses tip in dunk
OKC 114·TOR 107
+1pp
Q4·33.8
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
OKC 114·TOR 107
−2pp
Q4·35.6
Isaiah Joe misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 114·TOR 107
+0.6pp
Q4·58.9
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 114·TOR 107
Q4·58.9
Alex Caruso enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
OKC 114·TOR 106
Q4·58.9
Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
OKC 114·TOR 106
Q4·58.9
Raptors offensive team rebound
OKC 114·TOR 106
−2pp
Q4·58.9
Immanuel Quickley misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 114·TOR 106
−2pp
Q4·58.9
Cason Wallace shooting foul
OKC 114·TOR 106
+4pp
Q4·1:03
Luguentz Dort makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)
·
OKC 114·TOR 106
−3pp
Q4·1:22
Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)
·
OKC 112·TOR 106
+3pp
Q4·1:38
Cason Wallace makes 2-foot two point shot
OKC 112·TOR 103
−2pp
Q4·1:51
RJ Barrett makes 6-foot two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)
·
OKC 110·TOR 103
+1pp
Q4·2:06
Raptors defensive team rebound
OKC 110·TOR 101
Q4·2:08
Cason Wallace misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 110·TOR 101
+0.7pp
Q4·2:15
Scottie Barnes bad pass turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)
·
OKC 110·TOR 101
−1pp
Q4·2:29
Scottie Barnes enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
OKC 110·TOR 101
Q4·2:29
Raptors Full timeout
OKC 110·TOR 101
Q4·2:36
Luguentz Dort makes 13-foot step back jumpshot
OKC 110·TOR 101
−2pp
Q4·2:58
Brandon Ingram out of bounds lost ball turnover
OKC 108·TOR 101
−4pp
Q4·3:14
Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cason Wallace assists)BIG MOMENT
·
OKC 108·TOR 101
−9pp
Q4·3:19
RJ Barrett bad pass turnover (Cason Wallace steals)BIG MOMENT
·
OKC 105·TOR 101
−6pp
Q4·3:21
Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
OKC 105·TOR 101

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 216.5·OKC -108/TOR -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 116–107.

OKC +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

TOR

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR