NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11SA

41-16

114103

DET

42-14

NBAMon, Feb 23FinalSeriesSA leads series 1-0VegasDET -1.5

SA · top performer

Devin Vassell

G · #24

24.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 10:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	36	17	6-12	5-8	—	+9	6	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	36	21	6-16	2-5	7-8	+13	17	4
D. FoxG · #4	33	10	4-17	0-5	2-4	+14	7	7
D. VassellG · #24	36	28	10-14	7-11	1-2	+11	2	4
S. CastleG · #5	30	16	7-16	1-1	1-3	+5	4	11
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	15	3	1-4	1-4	—	+3	2	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	9	4-11	1-4	—	+4	4	0
C. BryantF · #11	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	2	1
L. KornetC · #7	9	2	1-3	—	—	-6	4	0
D. HarperG · #2	18	5	2-7	0-1	1-2	+5	2	3
Team		114	42-101	18-40	12-19		50	32
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	30	4	1-6	0-1	2-2	+2	8	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	27	13	5-15	3-11	—	-1	3	5
J. DurenC · #0	29	25	10-13	—	5-6	-12	14	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	35	16	5-26	2-9	4-5	-18	6	10
A. ThompsonG · #9	18	8	4-6	—	—	-2	4	2
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	20	10	5-8	0-1	—	-3	5	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	26	15	5-13	1-6	4-4	-6	11	0
J. GreenG · #31	13	0	0-5	0-3	—	-9	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	21	5	2-4	1-3	—	-5	1	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	21	7	3-10	0-2	1-2	-1	3	0
Team		103	40-106	7-36	16-19		55	21
DNP: T. Smith, I. Stewart, K. Huerter, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DET

Home

42-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-106

FG %

18-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-36

12-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 1-0

Feb 24

SA114@

DET103today

Mar 6

DET106@

SA121

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+10250%

DET-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat DET 114-103. D. Vassell paced them with 28 PTS, 2 REB, 4 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 36 REB · 27 AST

GS 79

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 17

DETstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 35 REB · 20 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 20 REB · 1 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA3rd Quarter · 6:51 · 68-64

+8pp→ 59% WP

Stephon Castle · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)

SA3rd Quarter · 4:15 · 76-69

+9pp→ 76% WP

Ronald Holland II · misses 26-foot three point jumper

SA4th Quarter · 10:27 · 90-77

+10pp→ 96% WP

Jalen Duren · makes 5-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	24	33	26	31	114
DET	27	28	20	28	103

Period scoring

SA won 3 · DET won 1

Vassell 9

II 9

Champagnie 9

Thompson 8

Castle 8

Robinson 5

Wembanyama 11

Duren 17

DET

Shooting comparison

DET

42%

42-101

38%

40-106

45%

18-40

3PT

19%

7-36

63%

12-19

84%

16-19

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 114·DET 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 114·DET 103
Q4·17.6
shot clock turnover
SA 114·DET 103
Q4·40.5
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
SA 114·DET 103
Q4·41.0
Jalen Duren misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
SA 114·DET 103
Q4·56.7
Julian Champagnie makes 1-foot dunk (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 114·DET 103
Q4·1:02
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 112·DET 103
−0.6pp
Q4·1:02
Paul Reed enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
SA 112·DET 102
Q4·1:02
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
SA 112·DET 102
Q4·1:02
Julian Champagnie shooting foul
SA 112·DET 102
+0.9pp
Q4·1:02
Jalen Duren makes layup (Duncan Robinson assists)
·
SA 112·DET 102
Q4·1:11
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 112·DET 100
Q4·1:11
Tobias Harris enters the game for Paul Reed
·
SA 111·DET 100
Q4·1:11
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 111·DET 100
Q4·1:11
Paul Reed personal foul
SA 110·DET 100
Q4·1:12
Paul Reed enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
SA 110·DET 100
Q4·1:12
Spurs Full timeout
SA 110·DET 100
Q4·1:12
Jalen Duren makes tip shot
SA 110·DET 100
Q4·1:13
Jalen Duren offensive rebound
SA 110·DET 98
Q4·1:14
Cade Cunningham misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 110·DET 98
Q4·1:23
Cade Cunningham makes technical free throw
SA 110·DET 98
Q4·1:23
delay techfoul
SA 110·DET 97
Q4·1:23
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 110·DET 97
Q4·1:23
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 109·DET 97
Q4·1:23
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 109·DET 97
Q4·1:23
Jalen Duren shooting foul
SA 109·DET 97
Q4·1:35
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 109·DET 97
Q4·1:37
Duncan Robinson misses 29-foot three point jumper
SA 109·DET 97
Q4·1:42
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Paul Reed
·
SA 109·DET 97
Q4·1:42
Jalen Duren enters the game for Ronald Holland II
·
SA 109·DET 97

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 232.5·SA +102/DET -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 114–103.

SA +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Tobias HarrisDET
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Ausar ThompsonDET
7.1± 3.2high
Tobias HarrisDET
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Paul ReedDET
0.9± 1.3high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DET

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR