NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NY

HOU

34-21

106108

36-21

NBASat, Feb 21FinalSeriesNY leads series 1-0VegasNY -3.5

HOU · top performer

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · #10

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 29.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	30	10-26	4-10	6-7	+15	6	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	36	21	8-13	4-8	1-2	-9	4	1
T. EasonF · #17	35	11	4-8	1-4	2-2	-7	12	4
A. SengunC · #28	31	16	6-12	1-1	3-4	-6	6	6
A. ThompsonG · #1	41	12	5-9	0-2	2-4	+5	10	7
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	21	2	1-4	0-2	—	-13	3	0
J. TateF · #8	5	0	0-1	—	—	-7	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	11	4	1-2	—	2-2	+12	1	0
R. SheppardG · #15	21	10	3-5	2-4	2-2	0	2	3
Team		106	38-80	12-31	18-23		44	24
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday, J. Okogie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	40	20	8-16	2-7	2-2	+6	2	1
K. TownsC · #32	34	25	10-15	3-3	2-2	+23	7	1
J. HartG · #3	27	2	1-7	0-3	—	-14	6	6
M. BridgesG · #25	31	11	5-11	1-2	—	+3	6	5
J. BrunsonG · #11	36	20	6-12	0-1	8-9	-10	3	6
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-2	0	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	4	2	1-1	—	—	-2	0	1
M. RobinsonC · #23	18	6	3-5	—	—	-21	4	0
L. ShametG · #44	26	14	5-7	2-4	2-3	+8	0	2
J. AlvaradoG · #5	20	8	3-9	2-5	—	+19	1	4
Team		108	42-85	10-26	14-16		29	26
DNP: P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti, J. Clarkson, K. McCullar Jr., T. Kolek

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

Home

38-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-85

FG %

12-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-26

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 1-0

Feb 22

HOU106@

NY108today

Apr 1

NY94@

HOU111

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU+13642%

NY-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -3.5↗SpreadBet NY -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat HOU 108-106. K. Towns paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. NY outscored the other side 33-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 38 REB · 21 AST

GS 72

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 9

NYstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 24 REB · 19 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 5 REB · 7 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 1:26 · 103-103

+11pp→ 44% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes two point shot

NY4th Quarter · 29.5 · 103-105

+19pp→ 63% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes 15-foot pullup jump shot

NY4th Quarter · 6.1 · 103-105

+15pp→ 96% WP

Kevin Durant · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	21	33	37	15	106
NY	27	26	22	33	108

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · NY won 2

Durant 7

Robinson 17

Sengun 11

Anunoby 7

Durant 12

Brunson 10

Bridges 6

Brunson 8

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

48%

38-80

49%

42-85

39%

12-31

3PT

38%

10-26

78%

18-23

88%

14-16

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 106·NY 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 106·NY 108
Q4·0.1
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 106·NY 108
+0.5pp
Q4·0.4
Kevin Durant misses 40-foot jump bank shot
HOU 106·NY 108
+3pp
Q4·1.4
Landry Shamet makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 106·NY 108
−2pp
Q4·1.4
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
HOU 106·NY 107
+2pp
Q4·1.4
Knicks offensive team rebound
HOU 106·NY 107
−1pp
Q4·1.4
Landry Shamet misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 106·NY 107
−1pp
Q4·1.4
Reed Sheppard personal take foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 106·NY 107
+5pp
Q4·2.4
Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointer
HOU 106·NY 107
−2pp
Q4·5.4
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Clint Capela
·
HOU 103·NY 107
Q4·5.4
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Jose Alvarado
·
HOU 103·NY 107
Q4·5.4
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 103·NY 107
Q4·5.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 103·NY 107
−2pp
Q4·5.4
Mikal Bridges enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
HOU 103·NY 106
Q4·5.4
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
HOU 103·NY 106
Q4·5.4
Landry Shamet enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
HOU 103·NY 106
Q4·5.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 103·NY 106
+0.6pp
Q4·5.4
Clint Capela enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith
·
HOU 103·NY 105
Q4·5.4
Dorian Finney-Smith personal take foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·NY 105
+6pp
Q4·6.1
Jose Alvarado enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
HOU 103·NY 105
Q4·6.1
Knicks Full timeout
HOU 103·NY 105
Q4·6.1
Mikal Bridges enters the game for Jose Alvarado
·
HOU 103·NY 105
Q4·6.1
Josh Hart enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
HOU 103·NY 105
Q4·6.1
Knicks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·NY 105
−6pp
Q4·6.1
Kevin Durant personal take foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·NY 105
+15pp
Q4·14.5
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
HOU 103·NY 105
+4pp
Q4·15.5
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·NY 105
+11pp
Q4·16.9
Tari Eason offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·NY 105
−9pp
Q4·19.5
Kevin Durant misses 18-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·NY 105
+14pp

Betting line

NY -3.5·O/U 220.5·HOU +136/NY -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Houston Rockets, 108–106. Decided by 2.

HOU +3.5 cashed (NY won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

116.4

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR