NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17SA

SAC

12-46

122139

40-16

NBASat, Feb 21FinalSeriesSA leads series 2-0VegasSA -18.5

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:44

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	21	14	6-9	1-1	1-2	+6	3	4
K. MurrayF · #13	36	20	7-16	2-8	4-5	-22	2	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	26	16	6-14	0-2	4-4	-21	12	3
R. WestbrookG · #18	21	7	3-9	1-4	—	-21	3	2
D. DeRozanG · #10	35	20	5-13	0-1	10-10	-31	1	5
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	5	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	+9	1	1
D. EubanksF · #19	14	6	3-6	0-1	—	-5	4	4
M. MonkG · #0	28	19	8-16	3-9	—	-13	1	6
D. PlowdenG · #29	18	4	1-1	—	2-2	+6	2	1
D. CarterG · #22	6	0	—	—	—	+9	1	1
N. CliffordG · #5	30	8	4-9	0-3	—	-2	5	4
Team		122	45-96	9-32	23-25		35	33
DNP: D. Cardwell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	28	8	3-7	2-6	—	+22	4	3
V. WembanyamaF · #1	30	28	11-20	1-5	5-7	+32	15	6
D. FoxG · #4	27	18	7-11	1-3	3-4	+26	2	5
D. VassellG · #24	24	8	3-7	2-3	—	+23	3	3
S. CastleG · #5	25	18	6-9	0-1	6-8	0	8	3
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	21	14	5-9	3-7	1-1	+2	2	1
K. OlynykF · #8	6	4	2-3	—	—	-9	2	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	21	18	6-12	3-4	3-4	+13	1	0
H. IngramF · #55	4	2	1-1	—	—	-9	0	1
C. BryantF · #11	11	3	1-3	1-3	—	-12	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	13	4	1-1	—	2-2	-6	5	3
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	0	—	—	—	-9	0	0
S. UmudeG · #17	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	-9	0	1
D. HarperG · #2	23	12	5-9	0-1	2-2	+21	5	5
Team		139	52-94	13-34	22-28		48	32
DNP: B. Biyombo

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

Home

45-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-94

FG %

9-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-34

23-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 2-0

Nov 16

SAC110@

SA123

Feb 22

SAC122@

SA139today

Mar 18

SA132@

SAC104

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+95010%

SA-165094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -18.5↗SpreadBet SA -18.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat SAC 139-122. V. Wembanyama paced them with 28 PTS, 15 REB, 6 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 21 REB · 16 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

45 PTS · 14 REB · 17 AST

GS 47

SAstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 71

Bench(9)

59 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST

GS 47

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	31	34	29	28	122
SA	35	38	32	34	139

Period scoring

SAC won 0 · SA won 4

Murray 11

Champagnie 8

DeRozan 8

Castle 9

Murray 6

Wembanyama 9

McDermott 8

Wembanyama 8

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

47%

45-96

55%

52-94

28%

9-32

3PT

38%

13-34

92%

23-25

79%

22-28

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 122·SA 139
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 122·SA 139
Q4·8.4
shot clock turnover
SAC 122·SA 139
Q4·33.5
Doug McDermott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Precious Achiuwa assists)
·
SAC 122·SA 139
Q4·43.1
Kelly Olynyk 3 second turnover
SAC 119·SA 139
Q4·1:03
Doug McDermott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 119·SA 139
Q4·1:09
Devin Carter defensive rebound
SAC 116·SA 139
Q4·1:13
Carter Bryant misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
SAC 116·SA 139
Q4·1:25
Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 116·SA 139
Q4·1:25
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 115·SA 139
Q4·1:25
Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 115·SA 139
Q4·1:25
Stanley Umude shooting foul
SAC 115·SA 139
Q4·1:34
Harrison Ingram makes 1-foot two point shot (Stanley Umude assists)
·
SAC 115·SA 139
Q4·1:49
Nique Clifford makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Doug McDermott assists)
·
SAC 115·SA 137
Q4·1:50
Doug McDermott defensive rebound
SAC 113·SA 137
Q4·1:56
Stanley Umude misses 23-foot three point jumper
SAC 113·SA 137
Q4·2:06
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
·
SAC 113·SA 137
Q4·2:09
Doug McDermott misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 113·SA 137
Q4·2:32
Kelly Olynyk makes two point shot (Harrison Ingram assists)
·
SAC 113·SA 137
Q4·2:38
Daeqwon Plowden bad pass turnover (Stanley Umude steals)
·
SAC 113·SA 135
Q4·2:42
Carter Bryant bad pass turnover (Daeqwon Plowden steals)
· ·
SAC 113·SA 135
Q4·3:01
Nique Clifford makes two point shot
SAC 113·SA 135
Q4·3:07
Kelly Olynyk bad pass turnover (Doug McDermott steals)
·
SAC 111·SA 135
Q4·3:23
Precious Achiuwa makes layup
SAC 111·SA 135
Q4·3:37
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
SAC 109·SA 135
Q4·3:40
Carter Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
SAC 109·SA 135
Q4·3:54
Doug McDermott makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 109·SA 135
Q4·3:54
Doug McDermott makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 108·SA 135
Q4·3:54
Carter Bryant personal foul
·
SAC 107·SA 135
Q4·4:06
Stanley Umude makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
SAC 107·SA 135

Betting line

SA -18.5·O/U 230.5·SAC +950/SA -1650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Sacramento Kings, 139–122.

SAC +18.5 cashed (SA won by 17). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 30.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Drew EubanksSAC
0.7± 0.8high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high
Julian ChampagnieSA
1.1± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR