DEN
36-21
POR
27-30
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
32
Pts
9
Reb
7
Ast
POR · top performer
Donovan Clingan
C · #23
15
Pts
9
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 9:59
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 15 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 7-8 | +15 | 4 | 4 | |
| 29 | 32 | 10-15 | 3-4 | 9-11 | +40 | 9 | 7 | |
| 25 | 25 | 6-12 | 6-12 | 7-7 | +39 | 6 | 6 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +39 | 8 | 7 | |
| 29 | 19 | 9-16 | 1-4 | — | +48 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +12 | 2 | 1 | |
| 7 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-3 | — | +15 | 3 | 1 | |
| 30 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | — | +31 | 10 | 2 | |
| 12 | 6 | 3-8 | — | — | -1 | 7 | 1 | |
| 19 | 19 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 1-2 | +14 | 2 | 3 | |
| 20 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-1 | — | +4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1-2 | — | 1-2 | +14 | 1 | 4 | |
| Team | 157 | 55-96 | 21-41 | 26-32 | 60 | 41 | ||
| DNP: J. Pickett | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 25 | 6 | 3-6 | — | — | -35 | 3 | 0 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 0-2 | -37 | 1 | 1 | |
| 30 | 15 | 5-10 | 0-4 | 5-7 | -34 | 8 | 13 | |
| 19 | 15 | 6-12 | 3-6 | — | -11 | 9 | 2 | |
| 25 | 19 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 3-3 | -26 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -8 | 1 | 0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -17 | 3 | 1 | |
| 8 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-6 | -12 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -16 | 2 | 1 | |
| 17 | 11 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-1 | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -13 | 2 | 0 | |
| 21 | 11 | 3-11 | 3-7 | 2-2 | -30 | 1 | 3 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-4 | -14 | 1 | 1 | |
| 16 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -14 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 103 | 35-86 | 15-47 | 18-29 | 36 | 25 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
57
FG %
41
41
Ast
25
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
POR
Home
55-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-86
57
FG %
41
21-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-47
26-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-29
41
Assists
25
15
Turnovers
18
Season series
Series tied 1-1
DEN107@POR109DEN157@POR103todayPOR112@DEN128POR132@DEN137Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
241.5
High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-12255%POR+10250%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
241.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat POR 157-103. N. Jokic paced them with 32 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. DEN outscored the other side 41-26 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
102 PTS · 33 REB · 28 AST
GS 103
Bench(7)
55 PTS · 27 REB · 13 AST
GS 48
PORstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST
GS 45
Bench(9)
38 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST
GS 25
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 41 | 41 | 43 | 32 | 157 |
| POR | 27 | 26 | 32 | 18 | 103 |
Period scoring
DEN won 4 · POR won 0
Q1
Jokic 19
Clingan 6
Q2
Murray 15
Krejci 5
Q3
Jokic 8
Holiday 10
Q4
II 9
Thybulle 5
Shooting comparison
57%
55-96
FG
41%
35-86
51%
21-41
3PT
32%
15-47
81%
26-32
FT
62%
18-29
Play-by-play · 499 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·22.0
shot clock turnover
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·44.1
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·46.2
Yang Hansen misses 8-foot two point shot
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:00
Javonte Cooke defensive rebound
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:02
Julian Strawther misses two point shot
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:04
Julian Strawther offensive rebound
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:06
Julian Strawther misses running pullup jump shot
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:11
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:16
Javonte Cooke misses 26-foot three point jumper
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:35
KJ Simpson makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 157·POR 103
- Q4·1:35
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·1:35
KJ Simpson misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·1:35
Blake Wesley shooting foul
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·1:37
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·1:39
Sidy Cissoko misses running pullup jump shot
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·1:45
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·1:49
DaRon Holmes II misses 25-foot three point jumper
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·2:00
Yang Hansen makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 156·POR 103
- Q4·2:00
Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 156·POR 102
- Q4·2:00
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 156·POR 101
- Q4·2:00
Zeke Nnaji shooting foul
DEN 156·POR 101
- Q4·2:10
DaRon Holmes II makes 2-foot running dunk (Zeke Nnaji assists)
·
DEN 156·POR 101
- Q4·2:14
Yang Hansen bad pass turnover (Zeke Nnaji steals)
·
DEN 154·POR 101
- Q4·2:25
DaRon Holmes II makes 26-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)
·
DEN 154·POR 101
- Q4·2:39
Yang Hansen makes 8-foot two point shot (Blake Wesley assists)
·
DEN 151·POR 101
- Q4·2:51
Spencer Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)
·
DEN 151·POR 99
- Q4·2:58
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
DEN 148·POR 99
- Q4·3:01
Blake Wesley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 148·POR 99
Betting line
DEN -1.5·O/U 241.5·DEN -122/POR +102
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 157–103. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DEN -1.5 cashed (won by 54). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 18.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
POR
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.0%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
45.1%
121.1
PPG
114.9
114.6
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
16.2