NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21MIL

MIL

24-30

139118

15-42

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesMIL wins series 2-0VegasNO -4.5

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

28.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

26.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 8:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	25	14	6-11	2-5	—	+15	3	4
J. SimsC · #00	19	4	2-2	—	—	+21	6	1
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	32	25	10-15	0-1	5-6	+12	2	7
A. GreenG · #20	30	0	0-4	0-4	—	+22	2	4
R. RollinsG · #13	35	27	10-15	7-10	—	+14	2	6
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	27	17	8-12	1-3	—	0	11	1
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	2	2	—	—	2-2	+2	1	1
P. NanceF · #35	22	10	4-8	2-4	—	+5	5	2
O. DiengF · #21	22	10	3-6	1-1	3-4	+8	2	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	2	3	1-2	1-2	—	+2	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	21	27	11-17	1-6	4-6	+2	3	1
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		139	55-92	15-36	14-18		37	28
DNP: G. Harris

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	32	8	3-10	0-6	2-2	-19	4	3
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	30	32	13-17	—	6-8	-6	2	2
D. QueenC · #22	28	18	7-10	—	4-6	-15	9	4
S. BeyG · #41	36	22	7-14	2-7	6-6	-18	6	3
B. McGowensG · #11	30	10	5-12	0-3	0-1	-15	1	0
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	25	9	4-4	1-1	—	-5	7	2
J. PooleG · #3	25	3	1-6	1-4	—	-12	4	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
J. FearsG · #0	29	16	7-13	0-3	2-5	-10	4	5
Team		118	47-87	4-25	20-28		37	22
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

Home

55-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-87

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-25

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL wins series 2-0

Feb 5

NO137@

MIL141

Feb 21

MIL139@

NO118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+15040%

NO-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -4.5↗SpreadBet NO -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat NO 139-118. R. Rollins paced them with 27 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. MIL outscored the other side 36-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 15 REB · 22 AST

GS 69

Bench(7)

69 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 55

NOstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 74

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL3rd Quarter · 3:49 · 94-89

+8pp→ 63% WP

Ousmane Dieng · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pete Nance assists)

NO4th Quarter · 9:10 · 108-102

+9pp→ 30% WP

Bobby Portis · shooting foul

MIL4th Quarter · 8:34 · 111-102

+12pp→ 87% WP

Pete Nance · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	33	38	32	36	139
NO	38	27	31	22	118

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · NO won 1

Rollins 11

Williamson 14

Thomas 18

Queen 9

Rollins 8

Bey 8

Jr. 13

Fears 6

MIL

Shooting comparison

MIL

60%

55-92

54%

47-87

42%

15-36

3PT

16%

4-25

78%

14-18

71%

20-28

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 139·NO 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 139·NO 118
Q4·7.7
shot clock turnover
MIL 139·NO 118
Q4·32.6
Bryce McGowens makes running dunk
MIL 139·NO 118
Q4·36.0
Ousmane Dieng lost ball turnover (Bryce McGowens steals)
·
MIL 139·NO 116
Q4·56.0
Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup
MIL 139·NO 116
Q4·1:04
Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 139·NO 114
Q4·1:04
Derik Queen enters the game for Saddiq Bey
·
MIL 138·NO 114
Q4·1:04
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Herbert Jones
· ·
MIL 138·NO 114
Q4·1:04
Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 138·NO 114
Q4·1:04
Herbert Jones shooting foul
MIL 137·NO 114
Q4·1:10
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 137·NO 114
Q4·1:13
Herbert Jones misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 137·NO 114
Q4·1:28
Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MIL 137·NO 114
Q4·1:30
Karlo Matkovic lost ball turnover (Andre Jackson Jr. steals)
·
MIL 134·NO 114
Q4·1:31
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
MIL 134·NO 114
Q4·1:34
Gary Trent Jr. misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 134·NO 114
Q4·1:59
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 134·NO 114
Q4·1:59
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Zion Williamson
·
MIL 134·NO 113
Q4·1:59
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 134·NO 113
Q4·1:59
Ousmane Dieng shooting foul
MIL 134·NO 112
Q4·2:14
Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ryan Rollins assists)
·
MIL 134·NO 112
Q4·2:27
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for AJ Green
·
MIL 131·NO 112
Q4·2:27
Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Kyle Kuzma
·
MIL 131·NO 112
Q4·2:27
Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Kevin Porter Jr.
·
MIL 131·NO 112
Q4·2:27
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Jericho Sims
·
MIL 131·NO 112
Q4·2:27
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 131·NO 112
Q4·2:41
Bryce McGowens makes driving layup
MIL 131·NO 112
Q4·2:55
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
MIL 131·NO 110
Q4·2:57
Kevin Porter Jr. misses free throw 3 of 3
MIL 131·NO 110

Betting line

NO -4.5·O/U 224.5·MIL +150/NO -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 139–118. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL +4.5 cashed (NO lost outright). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
DeAndre JordanNO
0.9± 1.7low

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR