NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31MIA

MIA

30-27

12897

ATL

27-31

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesMIA leads series 2-1VegasMIA -3.5

MIA · top performer

Tyler Herro

G · #14

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 11:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	27	13	5-12	3-6	—	+20	7	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	27	17	8-14	1-4	0-2	+29	8	5
N. PowellG · #24	25	15	5-13	2-8	3-3	+22	3	2
D. MitchellG · #45	27	7	3-5	1-3	—	+15	5	7
P. LarssonG · #9	32	12	6-9	—	—	+16	6	1
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	3	3	1-1	1-1	—	+4	0	1
M. GardnerF · #15	7	3	1-1	—	1-1	+2	2	1
K. JohnsonF · #16	3	5	2-3	1-1	—	+4	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	27	10	5-9	0-1	—	+21	5	4
N. JovicF · #5	3	1	—	—	1-2	+4	0	1
K. WareC · #7	18	14	6-15	2-5	—	-2	12	1
D. SmithG · #12	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	0	0
T. HerroG · #14	23	24	9-14	2-4	4-4	+10	4	3
K. JakucionisG · #25	17	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+6	5	3
Team		128	52-100	13-35	11-14		58	31

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	29	22	8-12	4-5	2-4	-11	3	3
J. JohnsonF · #1	35	16	6-22	2-5	2-2	-14	16	11
Z. RisacherF · #10	23	4	1-8	1-3	1-2	-12	4	0
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	37	20	8-17	4-9	—	-25	3	3
D. DanielsG · #5	29	4	2-7	0-1	0-1	-17	7	3
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	24	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	-14	3	3
M. GueyeF · #18	13	0	—	—	—	-17	1	0
J. LandaleC · #31	19	3	1-7	0-4	1-2	-20	6	1
C. McCollumG · #3	27	20	8-16	4-8	—	-19	2	1
K. WallaceG · #2	3	2	0-1	—	2-2	-6	1	1
Team		97	36-95	16-38	9-15		46	26
DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, G. Vincent

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

52-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-95

FG %

13-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-38

11-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 2-1

Dec 27

MIA126@

ATL111

Feb 4

ATL127@

MIA115

Feb 21

MIA128@

ATL97today

Apr 12

ATL117@

MIA143

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

243.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA-14860%

ATL+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -3.5↗SpreadBet MIA -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

243.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat ATL 128-97. T. Herro led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. MIA outscored the other side 41-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 57

Bench(9)

64 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST

GS 59

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 3:23 · 46-45

+6pp→ 42% WP

CJ McCollum · makes 27-foot three pointer (Jalen Johnson assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 11:34 · 57-54

+7pp→ 35% WP

Onyeka Okongwu · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 8:00 · 64-60

+6pp→ 31% WP

Onyeka Okongwu · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	29	28	30	41	128
ATL	16	35	24	22	97

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · ATL won 1

Adebayo 8

Okongwu 4

Herro 9

McCollum 11

Wiggins 8

Alexander-Walker 8

Ware 7

McCollum 19

MIA

ATL

Shooting comparison

MIA

ATL

52%

52-100

38%

36-95

37%

13-35

3PT

42%

16-38

79%

11-14

60%

9-15

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 128·ATL 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 128·ATL 97
Q4·17.4
Keaton Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 128·ATL 97
Q4·17.4
Keaton Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 128·ATL 96
Q4·17.4
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 128·ATL 95
Q4·17.4
Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
MIA 128·ATL 95
Q4·18.2
Keshad Johnson misses driving layup
·
MIA 128·ATL 95
Q4·28.5
Jock Landale makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 128·ATL 95
Q4·28.5
Hawks offensive team rebound
MIA 128·ATL 94
Q4·28.5
Jock Landale misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 128·ATL 94
Q4·28.5
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 128·ATL 94
Q4·33.5
Myron Gardner makes free throw 1 of 1
MIA 128·ATL 94
Q4·33.5
Keaton Wallace shooting foul
MIA 127·ATL 94
Q4·33.5
Myron Gardner makes 6-foot two point shot
MIA 127·ATL 94
Q4·37.0
Myron Gardner offensive rebound
MIA 125·ATL 94
Q4·39.9
Dru Smith misses running pullup jump shot
MIA 125·ATL 94
Q4·45.1
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 125·ATL 94
Q4·48.8
Zaccharie Risacher misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 125·ATL 94
Q4·58.4
Keshad Johnson makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Myron Gardner assists)
· ·
MIA 125·ATL 94
Q4·1:06
Keshad Johnson defensive rebound
·
MIA 123·ATL 94
Q4·1:10
Zaccharie Risacher misses free throw 2 of 2
MIA 123·ATL 94
Q4·1:10
Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 123·ATL 94
Q4·1:10
Myron Gardner shooting foul
MIA 123·ATL 93
Q4·1:13
Dru Smith personal foul
MIA 123·ATL 93
Q4·1:21
Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)
·
MIA 123·ATL 93
Q4·1:35
Zaccharie Risacher makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
MIA 120·ATL 93
Q4·1:53
Keshad Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)
· ·
MIA 120·ATL 90
Q4·2:10
Corey Kispert makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 117·ATL 90
Q4·2:10
Hawks offensive team rebound
MIA 117·ATL 89
Q4·2:10
Corey Kispert misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 117·ATL 89

Betting line

MIA -3.5·O/U 243.5·MIA -148/ATL +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 128–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -3.5 cashed (won by 31). Total stayed UNDER 243.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

ATL

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

47.2%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

117.2

29.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR