NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13WSH

IND

15-42

118131

WSH

16-39

NBAFri, Feb 20FinalSeriesWSH wins series 3-1VegasWSH -1.5

IND · top performer

Jay Huff

C · #32

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Alondes Williams

G · #31

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 3:23

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. WalkerF · #5	31	12	3-11	3-9	3-4	-15	12	6
J. HuffC · #32	16	22	8-11	5-8	1-2	+12	1	2
T.J. McConnellG · #9	15	9	4-8	1-2	—	0	2	2
B. SheppardG · #26	20	8	3-5	0-2	2-4	+13	5	3
K. JonesG · #7	39	4	2-9	0-3	0-2	-7	5	11
Bench
M. PotterC · #11	26	18	6-13	4-9	2-2	-16	5	2
K. BrownG · #24	33	12	4-9	2-4	2-3	-21	5	0
Q. JacksonG · #29	23	21	8-13	1-4	4-4	-14	3	3
T. PeterG · #4	37	12	5-11	2-8	—	-17	2	3
Team		118	43-90	18-49	14-21		40	32
DNP: A. Nembhard, A. Nesmith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	11	0	0-1	—	—	-5	7	1
T. VukcevicF · #00	20	14	7-12	0-5	—	+4	8	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	22	6	3-8	0-4	—	+12	5	7
B. CoulibalyG · #0	22	13	6-12	1-3	—	+16	3	3
T. JohnsonG · #12	19	14	6-11	1-3	1-1	+3	1	1
Bench
A. GillF · #16	23	11	5-6	—	1-2	+8	3	6
S. CooperG · #13	27	18	8-11	0-2	2-3	+2	3	5
A. WilliamsG · #31	29	25	9-11	2-4	5-5	+4	10	4
J. WatkinsG · #5	23	11	5-11	1-5	—	+12	4	2
K. RichmondG · #19	31	7	3-7	1-2	—	+3	3	4
W. RileyG · #27	12	12	3-5	0-1	6-8	+6	1	2
Team		131	55-95	6-29	15-19		48	36
DNP: J. Hardy

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

43-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

55-95

FG %

18-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-29

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH wins series 3-1

Nov 29

WSH86@

IND119

Dec 14

WSH108@

IND89

Feb 20

IND105@

WSH112

Feb 21

IND118@

WSH131today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+10250%

WSH-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat IND 131-118. A. Williams paced them with 25 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. WSH outscored the other side 39-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 25 REB · 24 AST

GS 45

Bench(4)

63 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 47

WSHstarters 36% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 40

Bench(6)

84 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST

GS 86

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 10:57 · 95-94

+10pp→ 62% WP

Micah Potter · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)

IND4th Quarter · 6:29 · 102-106

+10pp→ 29% WP

Jarace Walker · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)

IND4th Quarter · 3:23 · 107-112

+11pp→ 32% WP

Jamir Watkins · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	27	41	24	26	118
WSH	22	35	35	39	131

Period scoring

IND won 2 · WSH won 2

Huff 9

Johnson 5

Huff 9

Jackson 13

Jackson 7

Riley 7

Potter 7

Williams 11

IND

WSH

Shooting comparison

IND

WSH

48%

43-90

58%

55-95

37%

18-49

3PT

21%

6-29

67%

14-21

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·11.8
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·15.4
Jarace Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·18.8
Quenton Jackson offensive rebound
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·20.1
Kobe Brown misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·27.9
Jamir Watkins makes 1-foot driving dunk
IND 118·WSH 131
Q4·28.0
Jamir Watkins offensive rebound
IND 118·WSH 129
Q4·30.8
Sharife Cooper misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 118·WSH 129
Q4·54.6
Taelon Peter makes 1-foot layup (Jarace Walker assists)
·
IND 118·WSH 129
Q4·59.3
Jamir Watkins personal foul
IND 116·WSH 129
Q4·1:04
Alondes Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)
·
IND 116·WSH 129
Q4·1:17
Quenton Jackson makes 1-foot driving dunk
IND 116·WSH 126
Q4·1:22
Sharife Cooper makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
IND 114·WSH 126
Q4·1:33
Taelon Peter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)
·
IND 114·WSH 124
Q4·1:35
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Kam Jones
·
IND 111·WSH 124
Q4·1:35
Pacers Full timeout
IND 111·WSH 124
Q4·1:35
Jamir Watkins makes 23-foot three pointer (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
IND 111·WSH 124
Q4·1:43
Kam Jones bad pass turnover (Alondes Williams steals)
·
IND 111·WSH 121
+0.9pp
Q4·1:55
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 111·WSH 121
−0.6pp
Q4·1:55
Taelon Peter shooting foul
IND 111·WSH 120
+2pp
Q4·1:55
Sharife Cooper makes driving layup (Anthony Gill assists)
·
IND 111·WSH 120
+2pp
Q4·2:10
Micah Potter makes layup (Jarace Walker assists)
·
IND 111·WSH 118
−0.8pp
Q4·2:36
Pacers Full timeout
IND 109·WSH 118
Q4·2:36
Kadary Richmond makes 2-foot running dunk (Alondes Williams assists)
·
IND 109·WSH 118
+2pp
Q4·2:41
Jarace Walker lost ball turnover (Kadary Richmond steals)
·
IND 109·WSH 116
+4pp
Q4·2:47
Alondes Williams makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
IND 109·WSH 116
+5pp
Q4·3:00
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 109·WSH 114
+5pp
Q4·3:00
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 108·WSH 114
+0.5pp
Q4·3:00
Anthony Gill shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 107·WSH 114
−9pp

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 230.5·IND +102/WSH -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ashington Wizards held off Indiana Pacers, 131–118.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Tristan VukcevicWSH · F
USG%26.991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
16.8± 8.1high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

WSH

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.5%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

46.3%

112.4

PPG

114.9

112.9

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR