POR
26-29
MIN
34-22
POR · top performer
Vit Krejci
G · #27
17
Pts
1
Reb
1
Ast
MIN · top performer
Julius Randle
F · #30
41
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:40
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 10 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -3 | 4 | 2 | |
| 32 | 9 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | -15 | 8 | 2 | |
| 27 | 11 | 3-14 | 0-7 | 5-5 | -32 | 5 | 3 | |
| 28 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-4 | — | -24 | 9 | 1 | |
| 30 | 23 | 9-22 | 5-11 | — | -11 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 5 | 2-3 | — | 1-2 | -1 | 5 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 17 | 7-10 | 3-6 | — | -10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | -3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 19 | 18 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 5-5 | -1 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | -6 | 4 | 6 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | — | -11 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 109 | 40-94 | 16-45 | 13-16 | 50 | 23 | ||
| DNP: K. Murray, M. Thybulle, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 41 | 14-24 | 3-7 | 10-11 | +11 | 7 | 2 | |
| 33 | 21 | 7-13 | 2-3 | 5-6 | +16 | 6 | 6 | |
| 28 | 17 | 5-7 | — | 7-10 | +28 | 8 | 1 | |
| 29 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | — | +26 | 4 | 5 | |
| 33 | 14 | 5-10 | 4-6 | — | +19 | 4 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | +6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 28 | 12 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +11 | 1 | 4 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | +2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | -5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 133 | 45-87 | 14-34 | 29-35 | 43 | 26 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
43
FG %
52
23
Ast
26
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
40-94
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-87
43
FG %
52
16-45
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-34
13-16
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
29-35
23
Assists
26
25
Turnovers
14
Season series
MIN leads series 2-0
MIN118@POR114POR109@MIN133todayMIN124@POR121POR108@MIN104Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
237.5
High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+23530%MIN-29074%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
237.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat POR 133-109. J. Randle led the way with 41 points and 7 rebounds. MIN outscored the other side 37-27 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 31 REB · 13 AST
GS 36
Bench(7)
48 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST
GS 34
MINstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST
GS 85
Bench(8)
37 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNaz Reid · makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Rudy Gobert assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 26 | 25 | 31 | 27 | 109 |
| MIN | 32 | 29 | 35 | 37 | 133 |
Period scoring
POR won 0 · MIN won 4
Q1
Henderson 8
Edwards 12
Q2
Holiday 9
Reid 9
Q3
Holiday 10
Gobert 13
Q4
Krejci 12
Randle 23
Shooting comparison
43%
40-94
FG
52%
45-87
36%
16-45
3PT
41%
14-34
81%
13-16
FT
83%
29-35
Play-by-play · 505 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 109·MIN 133
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 109·MIN 133
- Q4·6.8
shot clock turnover
POR 109·MIN 133
- Q4·30.8
Rayan Rupert makes 7-foot two point shot
POR 109·MIN 133
- Q4·36.6
Jaylen Clark out of bounds lost ball turnover
POR 107·MIN 133
- Q4·41.4
Enrique Freeman defensive rebound
POR 107·MIN 133
- Q4·44.5
Enrique Freeman blocks Javonte Cooke's layup
·
POR 107·MIN 133
- Q4·51.7
Javonte Cooke defensive rebound
POR 107·MIN 133
- Q4·53.6
Joan Beringer misses layup
POR 107·MIN 133
- Q4·1:03
Yang Hansen makes tip in dunk
POR 107·MIN 133
- Q4·1:03
Yang Hansen offensive rebound
POR 105·MIN 133
- Q4·1:07
Blake Wesley misses two point shot
POR 105·MIN 133
- Q4·1:22
Jaylen Clark makes 11-foot floating jump shot
POR 105·MIN 133
- Q4·1:28
Julian Phillips makes free throw clear path 2 of 2
POR 105·MIN 131
- Q4·1:28
Julian Phillips makes free throw clear path 1 of 2
POR 105·MIN 130
- Q4·1:28
(01:28) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
POR 105·MIN 129
- Q4·1:28
Rayan Rupert clear path foul
POR 105·MIN 129
- Q4·1:29
Javonte Cooke lost ball turnover (Julian Phillips steals)
·
POR 105·MIN 129
- Q4·1:31
Javonte Cooke offensive rebound
POR 105·MIN 129
- Q4·1:34
Javonte Cooke misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 105·MIN 129
- Q4·1:46
Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 105·MIN 129
- Q4·1:46
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 105·MIN 128
- Q4·1:46
Javonte Cooke shooting foul
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·1:47
Joan Beringer offensive rebound
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·1:49
Jaylen Clark misses 7-foot floating jump shot
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·2:01
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·2:04
Blake Wesley misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·2:11
Javonte Cooke defensive rebound
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·2:14
Julian Phillips misses 25-foot three point jumper
POR 105·MIN 127
- Q4·2:28
Vit Krejci makes two point shot (Blake Wesley assists)
·
POR 105·MIN 127
Betting line
MIN -7.5·O/U 237.5·POR +235/MIN -290
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves held off Portland Trail Blazers, 133–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
MIN -7.5 cashed (won by 24). Total cleared the 237.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- Donte DiVincenzoMIN1.2± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
MIN
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶47.6%
114.6
PPG
114.9
▶116.8
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.7
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.0