NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAC

LAC

26-28

105102

HOU

33-20

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasHOU -8.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 55pp · 4th Quarter · 3:10

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	33	27	9-20	1-5	8-9	+3	12	4
J. CollinsF · #20	35	12	6-11	0-2	—	-7	6	1
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	30	12	4-8	2-4	2-2	+5	1	3
B. LopezC · #11	37	15	6-10	3-7	—	+2	1	3
K. DunnG · #8	37	16	6-10	4-6	0-1	+7	2	6
Bench
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	10	0	0-1	—	—	-1	3	0
J. MillerG · #22	17	4	2-5	0-1	—	+3	3	0
B. MathurinG · #9	31	16	3-10	1-3	9-10	+6	3	3
K. SandersG · #4	10	3	0-2	—	3-4	-3	1	1
Team		105	36-77	11-28	22-26		32	21
DNP: D. Banton, I. Jackson, B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr., C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	36	21	7-15	3-9	4-5	+6	8	6
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	36	16	6-12	2-7	2-2	-8	12	0
T. EasonF · #17	34	13	4-13	2-8	3-3	+1	2	3
A. SengunC · #28	29	16	7-16	0-1	2-4	-5	9	6
A. ThompsonG · #1	41	12	5-8	0-1	2-2	-2	6	5
Bench
J. TateF · #8	13	4	2-3	—	—	-2	1	1
C. CapelaC · #30	16	3	1-2	—	1-2	+5	5	0
J. OkogieG · #20	10	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
R. SheppardG · #15	25	17	6-13	5-10	—	-4	2	4
Team		102	38-82	12-36	14-18		45	25
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

36-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-82

FG %

11-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-36

22-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 12

LAC113@

HOU115

Dec 24

HOU108@

LAC128

Feb 11

LAC95@

HOU102

Feb 12

LAC105@

HOU102today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

212.5

Defensive · -13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC+26028%

HOU-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -8.5↗SpreadBet HOU -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

212.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat HOU 105-102. K. Leonard paced them with 27 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. LAC outscored the other side 35-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

HOUstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST

GS 58

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 7.2 · 102-102

+27pp→ 53% WP

Alperen Sengun · misses free throw 2 of 2

LAC4th Quarter · 2.0 · 104-102

+41pp→ 94% WP

Kawhi Leonard · makes 12-foot two point shot

HOU4th Quarter · 3:10 · 95-95

+55pp→ 55% WP

Derrick Jones Jr. · enters the game for Brook Lopez

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	22	24	24	35	105
HOU	29	27	20	26	102

Period scoring

LAC won 2 · HOU won 2

Jr. 5

Jr. 10

Dunn 7

Sheppard 11

Dunn 6

Eason 6

Leonard 19

Durant 11

LAC

HOU

Shooting comparison

LAC

HOU

47%

36-77

46%

38-82

39%

11-28

3PT

33%

12-36

85%

22-26

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 449 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 105·HOU 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
LAC 105·HOU 102
−55pp
Q4·0.0
Rockets offensive team rebound
LAC 105·HOU 102
Q4·0.0
Tari Eason misses 22-foot turnaround jump shot
LAC 105·HOU 102
−3pp
Q4·2.0
Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for John Collins
·
LAC 105·HOU 102
Q4·2.0
Tari Eason enters the game for Clint Capela
·
LAC 105·HOU 102
Q4·2.0
Rockets Full timeout
LAC 105·HOU 102
Q4·2.0
Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 1
LAC 105·HOU 102
+1pp
Q4·2.0
Clint Capela enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
LAC 104·HOU 102
Q4·2.0
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
LAC 104·HOU 102
Q4·2.0
Jae'Sean Tate shooting foul
LAC 104·HOU 102
−4pp
Q4·2.0
Kawhi Leonard makes 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 104·HOU 102
−41pp
Q4·6.9
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
LAC 102·HOU 102
Q4·6.9
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 102·HOU 102
Q4·7.2
Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound
LAC 102·HOU 102
Q4·7.2
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 102
−27pp
Q4·7.2
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 102
+6pp
Q4·7.2
Kawhi Leonard shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 101
+21pp
Q4·11.2
Rockets Full timeout
LAC 102·HOU 101
Q4·16.5
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
LAC 102·HOU 101
+4pp
Q4·18.0
Kawhi Leonard misses 23-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 101
+9pp
Q4·42.7
Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 102·HOU 101
+9pp
Q4·47.0
Brook Lopez enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.
·
LAC 102·HOU 99
Q4·47.0
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
LAC 102·HOU 99
Q4·47.0
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 99
+7pp
Q4·47.1
Amen Thompson misses layupBIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 99
−9pp
Q4·1:00
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
LAC 102·HOU 99
+2pp
Q4·1:01
John Collins misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 99
+6pp
Q4·1:23
John Collins defensive rebound
LAC 102·HOU 99
Q4·1:23
Kevin Durant misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 102·HOU 99
−17pp

Betting line

HOU -8.5·O/U 212.5·LAC +260/HOU -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 105–102. Decided by 3.

LAC +8.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 212.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

HOU

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

113.9

PPG

114.9

114.1

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR