NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18DET

DET

40-13

11395

TOR

32-23

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesDET leads series 1-0VegasTOR -1.5

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 1:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	31	12	4-9	1-4	3-4	+13	12	0
D. RobinsonF · #55	25	13	4-8	2-5	3-4	+17	4	1
P. ReedF · #7	33	22	10-17	1-2	1-2	+21	5	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	30	28	9-14	6-11	4-6	+26	7	9
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	4	2-3	—	—	+19	4	4
Bench
T. SmithF · #35	15	3	1-3	—	1-3	-3	3	2
B. KlintmanF · #34	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	0	0
J. GreenG · #31	16	3	0-4	0-2	3-3	+4	4	2
C. LeVertG · #8	18	9	3-8	3-4	—	+2	2	1
K. HuerterG · #27	21	9	4-9	1-3	—	+5	3	0
M. SasserG · #25	4	2	1-1	—	—	-1	0	1
C. LanierG · #20	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	+1	0	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	17	8	3-9	0-1	2-3	-13	3	1
Team		113	41-89	14-34	17-25		47	24
DNP: I. Stewart, J. Duren

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	32	13	5-7	1-2	2-2	-12	0	0
R. BarrettF · #9	30	16	4-6	1-2	7-8	-10	3	4
S. BarnesF · #4	30	17	5-13	0-3	7-7	-1	7	5
J. PoeltlC · #19	20	9	4-7	—	1-2	-2	6	0
I. QuickleyG · #5	32	18	7-15	4-9	—	-22	2	5
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	20	7	2-8	1-6	2-2	-10	6	1
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	10	0	0-1	—	—	-15	3	1
J. BattleF · #77	4	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	24	0	0-5	0-3	—	-10	2	3
J. WalterG · #14	19	3	1-3	1-3	—	-9	3	3
A. MartinG · #55	4	2	1-2	—	—	+1	1	0
G. DickG · #1	16	10	3-8	2-4	2-2	-1	2	0
Team		95	32-75	10-32	21-23		35	22
DNP: G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

41-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-75

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-32

17-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Feb 12

DET113@

TOR95today

Mar 15

DET108@

TOR119

Apr 1

TOR116@

DET127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-10551%

TOR-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat TOR 113-95. C. Cunningham paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 9 AST. DET outscored the other side 29-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 79

Bench(8)

34 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 15

TORstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 63

Bench(7)

22 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 9

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	29	38	27	19	113
TOR	19	33	22	21	95

Period scoring

DET won 3 · TOR won 1

Reed 16

Barnes 6

Cunningham 18

Quickley 11

Cunningham 6

Dick 6

Huerter 7

Ingram 5

DET

TOR

Shooting comparison

DET

TOR

46%

41-89

43%

32-75

41%

14-34

3PT

31%

10-32

68%

17-25

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 113·TOR 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 113·TOR 95
Q4·2.1
Marcus Sasser bad pass turnover (Ja'Kobe Walter steals)
·
DET 113·TOR 95
Q4·23.4
Tolu Smith defensive rebound
DET 113·TOR 95
Q4·29.8
Alijah Martin misses 14-foot two point shot
DET 113·TOR 95
Q4·41.2
Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
DET 113·TOR 95
Q4·1:05
Alijah Martin makes 7-foot two point shot
DET 110·TOR 95
Q4·1:14
Marcus Sasser makes two point shot
DET 110·TOR 93
Q4·1:36
Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 108·TOR 93
Q4·1:36
Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 108·TOR 92
Q4·1:36
Bobi Klintman shooting foul
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·1:59
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·1:59
Chaz Lanier misses 25-foot running jump shot
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:05
Ja'Kobe Walter lost ball turnover (Bobi Klintman steals)
·
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:15
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:17
Bobi Klintman misses 28-foot three point jumper
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:26
Tolu Smith offensive rebound
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:31
Chaz Lanier misses 17-foot turnaround jump shot
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:36
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:36
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:36
Ja'Kobe Walter blocks Bobi Klintman 's 5-foot driving layup
·
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:51
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·2:55
Gradey Dick misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·3:02
Daniss Jenkins bad pass turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
·
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·3:15
Gradey Dick makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)
·
DET 108·TOR 91
Q4·3:34
Alijah Martin defensive rebound
DET 108·TOR 89
Q4·3:37
Tolu Smith misses two point shot
DET 108·TOR 89
Q4·3:51
Tolu Smith enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 108·TOR 89
Q4·3:51
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 108·TOR 89
Q4·3:51
Bobi Klintman enters the game for Paul Reed
·
DET 108·TOR 89

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 223.5·DET -105/TOR -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 113–95.

DET +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

TOR

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.5%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR