NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8MIL

MIL

22-30

116108

ORL

28-25

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasORL -11.5

MIL · top performer

Cam Thomas

G · #24

24.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

24.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 5:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	30	15	5-15	1-7	4-4	+6	7	2
M. TurnerC · #3	31	5	2-4	1-2	—	+6	8	2
J. SimsC · #00	36	17	6-6	—	5-5	+8	11	2
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	39	18	5-14	1-3	7-7	+11	10	11
A. GreenG · #20	30	6	2-6	2-6	—	+1	1	2
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	16	4	1-5	0-3	2-2	+1	2	0
P. NanceF · #35	4	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
O. DiengF · #21	23	17	6-10	5-8	—	+6	3	0
G. HarrisG · #11	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	1	1
C. ThomasG · #24	25	34	12-20	4-6	6-6	+6	4	2
Team		116	39-81	14-36	24-24		47	22
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, G. Trent Jr., A. Jackson Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	39	17	5-16	2-6	5-8	-3	4	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	31	6	1-7	0-3	4-4	-8	11	3
D. BaneG · #3	39	31	11-17	8-11	1-1	-7	2	5
J. SuggsG · #4	35	16	5-14	4-11	2-2	-2	1	10
A. BlackG · #0	25	13	5-10	3-5	—	-5	3	3
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	17	12	4-5	0-1	4-4	0	5	4
F. WagnerF · #22	21	5	1-7	1-5	2-2	-9	0	3
T. da SilvaF · #23	23	5	2-5	1-4	—	-3	4	0
N. PendaF · #93	4	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	0	0	1
Team		108	35-82	20-47	18-21		30	31
DNP: J. Isaac, J. Cain, G. Bitadze, J. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

39-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-82

FG %

14-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-47

24-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 10

MIL99@

ORL118

Feb 12

MIL116@

ORL108today

Mar 9

ORL130@

MIL91

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+37021%

ORL-48583%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -11.5↗SpreadBet ORL -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat ORL 116-108. C. Thomas paced them with 34 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the 4th quarter (25pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 37 REB · 19 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 34

ORLstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 21 REB · 23 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 5:53 · 100-95

+18pp→ 46% WP

Jericho Sims · shooting foul

MIL4th Quarter · 5:42 · 102-96

+25pp→ 79% WP

(05:42) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)

MIL4th Quarter · 1:13 · 109-106

+25pp→ 84% WP

Kevin Porter Jr. · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	20	32	36	28	116
ORL	24	27	32	25	108

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · ORL won 1

Kuzma 11

Bane 15

Thomas 9

Black 8

Thomas 15

Suggs 9

Thomas 8

Bane 11

MIL

ORL

Shooting comparison

MIL

ORL

48%

39-81

43%

35-82

39%

14-36

3PT

43%

20-47

100%

24-24

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 431 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 116·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 116·ORL 108
Q4·6.7
Desmond Bane lost ball turnover (Myles Turner steals)
·
MIL 116·ORL 108
Q4·9.1
Desmond Bane offensive rebound
MIL 116·ORL 108
Q4·15.4
Jalen Suggs misses 31-foot three point jumper
MIL 116·ORL 108
−0.6pp
Q4·20.6
Magic Full timeout
MIL 116·ORL 108
Q4·21.1
Cam Thomas makes 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MIL 116·ORL 108
−6pp
Q4·41.0
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
MIL 113·ORL 108
−2pp
Q4·43.5
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 113·ORL 108
−6pp
Q4·55.3
Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 113·ORL 108
−16pp
Q4·1:12
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 110·ORL 108
−9pp
Q4·1:12
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 110·ORL 107
+3pp
Q4·1:12
Jericho Sims personal foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 110·ORL 106
+14pp
Q4·1:13
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 110·ORL 106
+6pp
Q4·1:13
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 109·ORL 106
−25pp
Q4·1:13
(01:13) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Magic] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIL 108·ORL 106
+23pp
Q4·1:13
Magic Full timeout
MIL 108·ORL 106
Q4·1:13
Franz Wagner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 108·ORL 106
−13pp
Q4·1:37
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
MIL 108·ORL 106
−3pp
Q4·1:37
Franz Wagner misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 108·ORL 106
−8pp
Q4·1:44
Kyle Kuzma makes running layup (Cam Thomas assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 108·ORL 106
−9pp
Q4·1:46
Cam Thomas defensive rebound
MIL 106·ORL 106
−2pp
Q4·1:48
Paolo Banchero misses running dunkBIG MOMENT
MIL 106·ORL 106
−7pp
Q4·1:54
Cam Thomas lost ball turnover (Franz Wagner steals)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 106·ORL 106
+9pp
Q4·2:16
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 106·ORL 106
−7pp
Q4·2:16
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 106·ORL 105
+9pp
Q4·2:16
Myles Turner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 106·ORL 104
+7pp
Q4·2:16
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 106·ORL 104
+7pp
Q4·2:17
Jalen Suggs misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIL 106·ORL 104
−8pp
Q4·2:44
Cam Thomas makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
MIL 106·ORL 104
−8pp

Betting line

ORL -11.5·O/U 219.5·MIL +370/ORL -485

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 116–108.

MIL +11.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.399
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Nikola VucevicORL
6.0± 1.6high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Anthony BlackORL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

ORL

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

26.0

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR