NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CLE

CLE

32-21

132126

SAC

12-42

NBASat, Feb 7FinalSeriesCLE wins series 2-0VegasCLE -12.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Nique Clifford

G · #5

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 42.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	33	29	11-12	—	7-8	-18	10	1
J. HardenG · #1	32	23	7-13	5-8	4-4	-14	2	8
D. MitchellG · #45	35	35	13-24	2-8	7-7	+12	2	4
S. MerrillG · #5	24	2	0-6	0-5	2-2	-8	1	2
J. TysonG · #20	27	10	3-8	0-1	4-4	-27	6	0
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	17	6	3-4	—	—	+16	5	2
T. BryantC · #3	15	10	3-5	2-4	2-2	+24	3	2
D. SchroderG · #8	17	7	3-9	0-4	1-1	+22	3	4
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	23	4	1-3	0-1	2-4	+3	3	4
K. EllisG · #14	17	6	2-4	2-4	—	+20	3	3
Team		132	46-88	11-35	29-32		38	30
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. RaynaudC · #42	23	14	5-8	—	4-4	+1	7	0
R. WestbrookG · #18	32	21	8-14	5-10	0-2	-6	5	9
D. DeRozanG · #10	30	13	4-16	2-4	3-3	-8	2	3
D. PlowdenG · #29	39	16	6-11	2-7	2-2	+7	6	4
N. CliffordG · #5	40	30	12-19	5-9	1-2	+5	4	4
Bench
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	16	2	1-3	0-1	0-2	-7	2	2
D. McDermottF · #7	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-11	1	0
D. CardwellC · #32	25	12	6-9	—	—	-7	11	4
D. CarterG · #22	27	18	6-13	2-5	4-5	-4	4	4
Team		126	48-94	16-37	14-20		42	30
DNP: D. Sabonis, D. Eubanks

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

46-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-94

FG %

11-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-37

29-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 2-0

Jan 24

SAC118@

CLE123

Feb 8

CLE132@

SAC126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-62586%

SAC+45518%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -12.5↗SpreadBet CLE -12.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat SAC 132-126. J. Allen paced them with 29 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. CLE outscored the other side 39-30 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST

GS 41

SACstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 24 REB · 20 AST

GS 74

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE4th Quarter · 3:10 · 119-121

+15pp→ 43% WP

James Harden · makes 26-foot three pointer (Keon Ellis assists)

CLE4th Quarter · 2:39 · 122-121

+16pp→ 66% WP

James Harden · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)

SAC4th Quarter · 42.5 · 126-126

+20pp→ 38% WP

DeMar DeRozan · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	25	32	36	39	132
SAC	31	24	41	30	126

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · SAC won 2

Bryant 8

DeRozan 10

Allen 10

Merrill 15

Mitchell 12

Clifford 9

Mitchell 17

Clifford 7

CLE

SAC

Shooting comparison

CLE

SAC

52%

46-88

51%

48-94

31%

11-35

3PT

43%

16-37

91%

29-32

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 132·SAC 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 132·SAC 126
Q4·2.2
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 132·SAC 126
Q4·4.8
Nique Clifford misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 132·SAC 126
−2pp
Q4·10.9
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 132·SAC 126
+1pp
Q4·10.9
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 131·SAC 126
Q4·10.9
Nique Clifford personal take foul
CLE 130·SAC 126
−3pp
Q4·12.3
James Harden defensive rebound
CLE 130·SAC 126
−2pp
Q4·16.6
DeMar DeRozan misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 130·SAC 126
−5pp
Q4·21.9
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 130·SAC 126
+4pp
Q4·21.9
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 129·SAC 126
−1pp
Q4·21.9
Dylan Cardwell personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 128·SAC 126
−8pp
Q4·21.9
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 128·SAC 126
−2pp
Q4·23.2
Russell Westbrook misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 128·SAC 126
−7pp
Q4·35.6
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 128·SAC 126
+6pp
Q4·35.6
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 127·SAC 126
−2pp
Q4·35.6
Russell Westbrook personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 126·SAC 126
−18pp
Q4·42.5
DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 126·SAC 126
+20pp
Q4·50.5
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
CLE 126·SAC 123
+2pp
Q4·53.3
Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 126·SAC 123
+5pp
Q4·1:13
Russell Westbrook out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
CLE 126·SAC 123
−7pp
Q4·1:17
DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Devin Carter
·
CLE 126·SAC 123
Q4·1:17
Kings Full timeout
CLE 126·SAC 123
Q4·1:17
Daeqwon Plowden offensive rebound
CLE 126·SAC 123
+5pp
Q4·1:19
Russell Westbrook misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 126·SAC 123
−5pp
Q4·1:24
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
CLE 126·SAC 123
+5pp
Q4·1:28
Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 126·SAC 123
−5pp
Q4·1:46
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 126·SAC 123
+5pp
Q4·1:46
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 125·SAC 123
−2pp
Q4·1:46
Daeqwon Plowden personal foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 124·SAC 123
−10pp

Betting line

CLE -12.5·O/U 229.5·CLE -625/SAC +455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 132–126.

SAC +12.5 cashed (CLE won by 6). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

SAC

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR