NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6PHI

PHI

30-22

109103

PHX

31-22

NBASat, Feb 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHX -2.5

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Dillon Brooks

F · #3

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	18	6	3-4	0-1	0-1	+5	4	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	33	33	9-19	4-7	11-13	-10	9	3
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	38	18	6-14	3-7	3-4	-3	6	2
T. MaxeyG · #0	40	29	8-21	3-10	10-11	+14	9	6
V. EdgecombeG · #77	25	5	2-4	1-2	—	-5	6	2
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	27	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	-8	7	2
J. EdwardsF · #11	17	2	1-1	—	—	+16	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	15	4	2-3	—	—	+19	5	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	28	6	2-4	0-1	2-3	+2	4	3
Team		109	35-74	11-29	28-34		50	18
DNP: P. George, M. Beauchamp, J. Broome, A. Drummond, C. Bassey, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	34	14	5-10	4-9	—	+6	11	3
D. BrooksF · #3	36	28	11-23	2-10	4-4	+10	2	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	31	11	4-7	—	3-5	0	11	2
D. BookerG · #1	32	21	5-12	1-7	10-11	+10	2	9
C. GillespieG · #12	28	6	2-11	2-10	—	-24	4	2
Bench
O. IghodaroF · #11	17	3	1-2	—	1-2	-7	3	1
R. DunnF · #0	11	3	1-5	1-3	—	-11	1	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	27	7	2-7	1-4	2-3	-6	3	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	8	2	—	—	2-2	-15	0	0
J. GreenG · #4	17	8	2-6	0-3	4-4	+7	3	3
Team		103	33-83	11-46	26-31		40	22
DNP: R. Fleming, K. Maluach, A. Coffey

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

35-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-83

FG %

11-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-46

28-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 21

PHX116@

PHI110

Feb 8

PHI109@

PHX103today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+11447%

PHX-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat PHX 109-103. J. Embiid paced them with 33 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST. PHI outscored the other side 34-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 34 REB · 13 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 16 REB · 5 AST

GS 14

PHXstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI2nd Quarter · 9:45 · 31-26

+12pp→ 58% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes driving floating jump shot (Quentin Grimes assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 9:33 · 85-71

+9pp→ 97% WP

Collin Gillespie · misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot

PHI4th Quarter · 17.6 · 105-100

+11pp→ 99% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes free throw 1 of 3

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	24	34	23	28	109
PHX	22	25	24	32	103

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · PHX won 2

Embiid 8

Booker 6

Embiid 9

Maxey 9

Embiid 9

Brooks 6

Maxey 13

Williams 15

PHI

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHI

PHX

47%

35-74

40%

33-83

38%

11-29

3PT

24%

11-46

82%

28-34

84%

26-31

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 109·PHX 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 109·PHX 103
−0.6pp
Q4·11.8
Royce O'Neale out of bounds bad pass turnover
PHI 109·PHX 103
−1pp
Q4·11.8
Quentin Grimes enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
PHI 109·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHI 109·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHI 109·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Suns Full timeout
PHI 109·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 109·PHX 103
+0.9pp
Q4·11.8
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHI 108·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Mark Williams enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
PHI 108·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 108·PHX 103
Q4·11.8
Collin Gillespie personal foul
PHI 107·PHX 103
−4pp
Q4·16.9
Devin Booker makes free throw 3 of 3
PHI 107·PHX 103
−5pp
Q4·16.9
Joel Embiid enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
PHI 107·PHX 102
Q4·16.9
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
PHI 107·PHX 102
+5pp
Q4·16.9
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 3
PHI 107·PHX 101
+0.7pp
Q4·16.9
Kelly Oubre Jr. shooting foul
PHI 107·PHX 100
+3pp
Q4·17.6
Quentin Grimes enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
PHI 107·PHX 100
Q4·17.6
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHI 107·PHX 100
Q4·17.6
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHI 107·PHX 100
Q4·17.6
Suns Full timeout
PHI 107·PHX 100
Q4·17.6
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 3 of 3
PHI 107·PHX 100
+0.8pp
Q4·17.6
Mark Williams enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
PHI 106·PHX 100
−5pp
Q4·17.6
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 3
PHI 106·PHX 100
−1pp
Q4·17.6
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 3BIG MOMENT
PHI 105·PHX 100
−11pp
Q4·17.6
Suns delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
PHI 104·PHX 100
+9pp
Q4·17.6
Devin Booker shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 104·PHX 100
−6pp
Q4·41.0
Devin Booker makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
PHI 104·PHX 100
−5pp
Q4·41.0
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
PHI 104·PHX 99
+6pp
Q4·41.0
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 3
PHI 104·PHX 98
+1pp

Betting line

PHX -2.5·O/U 224.5·PHI +114/PHX -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 109–103.

PHI +2.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high

Rebounds

Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
VJ EdgecombePHI
6.1± 2.7high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

PHX

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

24.5

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR