NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LAL

28-25

99105

LAL

32-19

NBASat, Feb 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAL -1.5

GS · top performer

Moses Moody

G · #4

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Austin Reaves

G · #15

15.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:43

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	33	9	3-9	2-6	1-2	+11	4	6
G. SantosF · #15	26	15	6-12	1-4	2-4	-4	8	3
D. MeltonG · #8	24	5	2-10	1-6	—	-13	0	1
M. MoodyG · #4	39	25	8-17	5-14	4-5	+5	4	2
P. SpencerG · #61	28	14	6-12	2-5	—	0	5	7
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	23	4	2-6	0-4	—	-11	4	0
Q. PostC · #21	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	1	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	18	13	6-8	1-2	—	-4	5	1
B. PodziemskiG · #2	33	14	6-15	2-7	—	+5	6	4
W. RichardG · #3	10	0	0-2	0-2	—	-13	0	1
Team		99	39-92	14-51	7-11		37	25
DNP: M. Leons

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	35	20	6-17	2-7	6-7	+7	7	10
R. HachimuraF · #28	28	18	7-10	4-5	—	-6	1	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	27	2	1-5	0-3	—	+2	4	1
J. HayesC · #11	20	6	3-4	—	0-1	-6	4	1
M. SmartG · #36	33	15	3-7	1-2	8-9	+7	3	4
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	28	5	2-3	0-1	1-2	+12	7	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	19	13	4-6	2-3	3-4	+11	8	2
L. KennardG · #10	26	10	4-7	2-4	—	+4	2	2
A. ReavesG · #15	24	16	5-10	0-2	6-7	-1	5	8
Team		105	35-69	11-27	24-30		41	29
DNP: D. Timme, D. Knecht, D. Ayton, N. Smith Jr., B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

39-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-69

FG %

14-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-27

7-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 22

GS119@

LAL109

Feb 8

GS99@

LAL105today

Mar 1

LAL129@

GS101

Apr 10

LAL119@

GS103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+11048%

LAL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat GS 105-99. A. Reaves led with 16 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. LAL outscored the other side 38-29 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 23

LALstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 48

Bench(4)

44 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL3rd Quarter · 8:43 · 49-56

+16pp→ 75% WP

LeBron James · lost ball turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)

LAL3rd Quarter · 8:43 · 49-56

+14pp→ 78% WP

De'Anthony Melton · out of bounds bad pass turnover

LAL4th Quarter · 5:47 · 88-92

+12pp→ 75% WP

Luke Kennard · makes 23-foot three pointer (Austin Reaves assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	21	21	29	28	99
LAL	20	21	38	26	105

Period scoring

GS won 2 · LAL won 1

II 7

Hachimura 5

Spencer 7

Hachimura 5

Moody 10

James 12

Santos 7

Kennard 34

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

42%

39-92

51%

35-69

27%

14-51

3PT

41%

11-27

64%

7-11

80%

24-30

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 99·LAL 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 99·LAL 105
Q4·0.8
De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)
·
GS 99·LAL 105
Q4·6.6
shot clock turnover
GS 96·LAL 105
Q4·30.7
Brandin Podziemski makes running dunk
GS 96·LAL 105
Q4·32.9
Austin Reaves lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
·
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·52.0
Lakers defensive team rebound
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·52.0
Marcus Smart blocks Gui Santos 's 3-foot driving layup
·
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·58.3
Gui Santos offensive rebound
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:00
Moses Moody misses running pullup jump shot
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:06
Gui Santos defensive rebound
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:08
Austin Reaves misses driving layup
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:27
Maxi Kleber defensive rebound
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:31
Moses Moody misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:42
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 94·LAL 105
Q4·1:42
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 94·LAL 104
+2pp
Q4·1:42
(01:42) [Warriors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Warriors] charged with a timeout
GS 94·LAL 103
−1pp
Q4·1:42
Warriors Full timeout
GS 94·LAL 103
−0.6pp
Q4·1:42
De'Anthony Melton personal foul
GS 94·LAL 103
+0.8pp
Q4·1:52
Gui Santos makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 94·LAL 103
+0.8pp
Q4·1:52
Maxi Kleber shooting foul
GS 93·LAL 103
−2pp
Q4·1:52
Gui Santos makes driving layup
GS 93·LAL 103
Q4·2:04
Austin Reaves makes 2-foot two point shot
GS 91·LAL 103
Q4·2:09
Maxi Kleber defensive rebound
GS 91·LAL 101
Q4·2:12
Maxi Kleber blocks Brandin Podziemski 's 3-foot driving layup
·
GS 91·LAL 101
+0.6pp
Q4·2:18
LeBron James bad pass turnover (De'Anthony Melton steals)
· ·
GS 91·LAL 101
−0.5pp
Q4·2:39
Draymond Green offensive foul turnover
GS 91·LAL 101
Q4·2:39
Draymond Green offensive foul
GS 91·LAL 101
+0.9pp
Q4·2:47
Austin Reaves offensive foul turnover
GS 91·LAL 101
Q4·2:47
Austin Reaves offensive foul
GS 91·LAL 101
−0.7pp

Betting line

LAL -1.5·O/U 220.5·GS +110/LAL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Golden State Warriors, 105–99.

LAL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Al HorfordGS · C
CONT6.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.5

PPG

114.9

114.8

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR