UTAH
16-37
ORL
27-24
UTAH · top performer
Lauri Markkanen
F · #23
27
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
ORL · top performer
Paolo Banchero
F · #5
23
Pts
7
Reb
8
Ast
Biggest swing: 71pp · 4th Quarter · 3:03
NBA · Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 27 | 12-21 | 3-6 | — | +2 | 7 | 1 | |
| 25 | 22 | 9-17 | 2-5 | 2-2 | +6 | 4 | 3 | |
| 24 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | |
| 13 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 31 | 10 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -13 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 12 | 13 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 4-4 | +7 | 6 | 0 | |
| 12 | 9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4-5 | -10 | 5 | 0 | |
| 14 | 0 | — | — | — | -10 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 4 | 1-9 | 0-3 | 2-2 | +10 | 3 | 2 | |
| 18 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 7 | 3 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 32 | 20 | 9-15 | 0-3 | 2-3 | -5 | 2 | 10 | |
| Team | 117 | 44-92 | 10-31 | 19-23 | 54 | 30 | ||
| DNP: O. Tshiebwe, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 23 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 9-12 | -2 | 7 | 8 | |
| 28 | 8 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | +7 | 6 | 1 | |
| 36 | 22 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 8-10 | +10 | 3 | 2 | |
| 34 | 12 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 2-4 | +13 | 7 | 6 | |
| 38 | 21 | 8-19 | 1-7 | 4-4 | -2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 13 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | +1 | 8 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-5 | — | -1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 10 | 6 | 2-2 | — | 2-2 | +5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-3 | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | -10 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 120 | 36-84 | 13-41 | 35-43 | 38 | 26 | ||
| DNP: J. Cain, G. Bitadze, J. Carter | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
43
30
Ast
26
Team stats
UTAH
Away
Stat
ORL
Home
44-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-84
48
FG %
43
10-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-41
19-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
35-43
30
Assists
26
24
Turnovers
14
Season series
ORL wins series 2-0
ORL128@UTAH127UTAH117@ORL120todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ORL -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
234.5
High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
UTAH+22531%ORL-27874%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
234.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ORL beat UTAH 120-117. P. Banchero led with 23 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 35-21 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ORL vs UTAH
Starters vs bench
production by unitUTAHstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 29 REB · 14 AST
GS 45
Bench(7)
50 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST
GS 45
ORLstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
86 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST
GS 70
Bench(6)
34 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 32
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJaren Jackson Jr. · misses 4-foot two point shot
Kyle Filipowski · personal foul
Wendell Carter Jr. · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 30 | 35 | 29 | 23 | 117 |
| ORL | 33 | 21 | 33 | 33 | 120 |
Period scoring
UTAH won 1 · ORL won 3
Q1
Markkanen 13
Bane 9
Q2
Markkanen 8
Banchero 6
Q3
Love 9
Banchero 8
Q4
Filipowski 9
Bane 8
Shooting comparison
48%
44-92
FG
43%
36-84
32%
10-31
3PT
32%
13-41
83%
19-23
FT
81%
35-43
Play-by-play · 513 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 117·ORL 120
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 117·ORL 120
+0.9pp
- Q4·1.1
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
UTAH 117·ORL 120
- Q4·1.1
Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 120
+13pp
- Q4·8.7
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 120
−6pp
- Q4·8.7
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 117·ORL 119
+2pp
- Q4·8.7
Kyle Filipowski personal foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 118
+18pp
- Q4·15.2
Isaiah Collier bad pass turnover (Jalen Suggs steals)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 117·ORL 118
+16pp
- Q4·17.8
Jazz offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 118
−12pp
- Q4·17.8
Wendell Carter Jr. blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 8-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
· ·
UTAH 117·ORL 118
+11pp
- Q4·28.3
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 118
−10pp
- Q4·28.3
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 117·ORL 117
+3pp
- Q4·28.3
Cody Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 116
+16pp
- Q4·28.4
Jalen Suggs defensive rebound
UTAH 117·ORL 116
+3pp
- Q4·32.0
Jalen Suggs blocks Isaiah Collier 's 15-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 117·ORL 116
+8pp
- Q4·55.1
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 117·ORL 116
−2pp
- Q4·55.1
Magic offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 115
−7pp
- Q4·55.1
Desmond Bane misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 115
+7pp
- Q4·55.1
Cody Williams enters the game for John Konchar
·
UTAH 117·ORL 115
- Q4·55.1
Jazz Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 115
−14pp
- Q4·55.1
John Konchar personal foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 117·ORL 115
+13pp
- Q4·1:06
John Konchar makes 3-foot running dunk (Isaiah Collier assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 117·ORL 115
−10pp
- Q4·1:10
John Konchar defensive rebound
UTAH 115·ORL 115
−2pp
- Q4·1:13
Desmond Bane misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 115·ORL 115
−7pp
- Q4·1:33
Jalen Suggs defensive rebound
UTAH 115·ORL 115
+2pp
- Q4·1:36
Kyle Filipowski misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 115·ORL 115
+6pp
- Q4·2:05
Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 115·ORL 115
+18pp
- Q4·2:14
Ace Bailey bad pass turnover (Paolo Banchero steals)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 115·ORL 112
+7pp
- Q4·2:31
Desmond Bane makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Anthony Black assists)BIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 115·ORL 112
+6pp
- Q4·2:45
Ace Bailey makes 21-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
UTAH 115·ORL 110
−16pp
Betting line
ORL -7.5·O/U 234.5·UTAH +225/ORL -278
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic held off Utah Jazz, 120–117. Decided by 3.
UTAH +7.5 cashed (ORL won by 3). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · GDEFL3.797
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · FCONT9.197
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · UTAH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ORL vs UTAH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH21.4± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Oscar TshiebweUTAH8.5± 5.5high
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
Assists
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
Blocks
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
UTAH
league avg
ORL
53.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
45.9%
117.6
PPG
114.9
114.2
29.6
Assists / G
25.0
26.0
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.7