NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6HOU

HOU

32-19

112106

OKC

40-13

NBASat, Feb 7FinalSeriesOKC wins series 2-1VegasOKC -3.5

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

26.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Cason Wallace

G · #22

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 28pp · 4th Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	40	20	6-10	2-5	6-9	+10	1	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	43	22	5-12	3-7	9-11	+7	10	0
T. EasonF · #17	34	26	10-22	5-13	1-2	+12	8	1
A. SengunC · #28	37	17	6-12	1-1	4-4	+13	12	11
R. SheppardG · #15	32	16	7-12	1-4	1-2	-3	3	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	3	1-6	1-6	—	-9	0	1
C. CapelaC · #30	8	0	0-1	—	—	-12	1	1
J. OkogieG · #20	12	0	0-3	0-3	—	-4	2	0
J. DavisonG · #4	18	8	3-5	2-4	—	+16	4	1
Team		112	38-83	15-43	21-28		41	25
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday, A. Thompson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	25	4	2-4	—	0-3	+11	8	11
C. HolmgrenC · #7	35	17	5-10	1-3	6-8	+5	14	0
L. DortG · #5	27	2	1-6	0-4	0-2	-20	2	3
A. WigginsG · #21	26	17	6-15	3-7	2-4	-24	2	1
C. WallaceG · #22	34	23	10-16	1-3	2-2	+7	4	4
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	15	6	2-4	2-3	—	-16	3	1
A. CarusoG · #9	26	8	3-9	2-6	0-1	-16	2	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	-7	2	1
I. JoeG · #11	29	21	5-11	3-6	8-8	+18	3	2
J. McCainG · #3	14	5	2-6	1-3	—	+12	2	1
Team		106	37-82	14-36	18-28		42	25
DNP: B. Boeheim, A. Mitchell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

38-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-82

FG %

15-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-36

21-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 2-1

Oct 21

HOU124@

OKC125

Jan 16

OKC111@

HOU91

Feb 7

HOU112@

OKC106today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU+13642%

OKC-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat OKC 112-106. A. Sengun stuffed the line with 17 PTS, 12 REB, and 11 AST. HOU outscored the other side 34-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 34 REB · 22 AST

GS 90

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 3

OKCstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU1st Quarter · 33.6 · 26-28

+22pp→ 32% WP

Jared McCain · enters the game for Kenrich Williams

HOU4th Quarter · 12:00 · 80-74

+28pp→ 73% WP

Isaiah Hartenstein · enters the game for Jaylin Williams

OKC3rd Quarter · 3:13 · 71-70

+25pp→ 50% WP

Kenrich Williams la · ne violation turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	28	18	34	32	112
OKC	28	24	22	32	106

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · OKC won 1

Sheppard 8

Dort 7

Sengun 5

Dort 18

Eason 9

Wiggins 8

Durant 9

Wallace 9

HOU

OKC

Shooting comparison

HOU

OKC

46%

38-83

45%

37-82

35%

15-43

3PT

39%

14-36

75%

21-28

64%

18-28

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 112·OKC 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 112·OKC 106
Q4·2.7
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 112·OKC 106
Q4·2.7
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 111·OKC 106
−2pp
Q4·2.7
(00:02.7) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Thunder] charged with a timeout
HOU 110·OKC 106
+2pp
Q4·2.7
Thunder Full timeout
HOU 110·OKC 106
+0.8pp
Q4·2.7
Luguentz Dort personal foul
HOU 110·OKC 106
−2pp
Q4·4.5
Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three pointer
HOU 110·OKC 106
+1pp
Q4·9.4
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 110·OKC 103
Q4·9.4
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 109·OKC 103
Q4·9.4
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 109·OKC 103
Q4·9.4
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 109·OKC 103
Q4·9.4
Alex Caruso personal take foul
HOU 108·OKC 103
−3pp
Q4·18.1
Rockets defensive team rebound
HOU 108·OKC 103
−2pp
Q4·21.8
Chet Holmgren misses 22-foot step back jumpshot
HOU 108·OKC 103
−3pp
Q4·23.4
Alex Caruso offensive rebound
HOU 108·OKC 103
+4pp
Q4·25.6
Aaron Wiggins misses free throw 2 of 2
HOU 108·OKC 103
−4pp
Q4·25.6
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Isaiah Joe
·
HOU 108·OKC 103
Q4·25.6
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 108·OKC 103
Q4·25.6
Thunder offensive team rebound
HOU 108·OKC 103
−5pp
Q4·25.6
Aaron Wiggins misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 108·OKC 103
−6pp
Q4·25.6
Kevin Durant shooting foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 108·OKC 103
+9pp
Q4·34.6
Tari Eason makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 108·OKC 103
+0.7pp
Q4·34.6
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 107·OKC 103
Q4·34.6
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 107·OKC 103
+3pp
Q4·34.6
Tari Eason misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 107·OKC 103
+2pp
Q4·34.6
Aaron Wiggins personal foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 107·OKC 103
−5pp
Q4·34.8
Tari Eason offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 107·OKC 103
−6pp
Q4·37.9
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
HOU 107·OKC 103
+2pp
Q4·1:00
Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 107·OKC 103
−6pp

Betting line

OKC -3.5·O/U 213.5·HOU +136/OKC -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 112–106.

HOU +3.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 213.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

OKC

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR