NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21NO

9-31

128107

WSH

10-27

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriesNO leads series 1-0VegasNO -3.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

31.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Justin Champagnie

F · #9

12.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 22pp · 1st Quarter · 8:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	29	31	12-14	—	7-13	+22	4	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	36	35	13-24	7-16	2-3	+32	8	4
D. QueenC · #22	35	14	7-13	0-2	—	+18	16	12
B. McGowensG · #11	29	6	2-6	1-5	1-2	+18	1	1
J. FearsG · #0	32	21	9-15	2-4	1-1	+20	5	6
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-4	3	0
Y. MissiC · #21	13	3	1-5	—	1-2	+3	9	2
J. PooleG · #3	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	-6	0	1
M. PeavyG · #14	28	9	4-9	1-4	—	+5	1	1
T. AlexanderG · #23	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	20	7	2-5	0-1	3-3	-2	4	0
Team		128	51-95	11-34	15-24		51	30
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	21	4	2-5	0-2	0-1	-24	2	1
K. GeorgeF · #18	24	15	6-13	3-6	—	-15	5	2
A. SarrC · #20	25	14	5-11	0-2	4-8	-31	1	3
B. CoulibalyG · #0	30	8	2-6	1-2	3-6	-26	5	4
T. JohnsonG · #12	25	12	3-7	2-5	4-4	-29	1	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	3	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
J. ChampagnieF · #9	22	12	6-12	0-2	—	-5	9	4
T. VukcevicF · #00	23	15	4-14	0-4	7-10	+10	4	2
M. BranhamG · #8	24	10	2-3	2-3	4-4	+14	2	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	29	11	4-10	3-8	—	-1	5	4
AJ JohnsonG · #4	16	6	3-6	0-1	—	+3	6	1
Team		107	37-87	11-35	22-33		40	24
DNP: M. Bagley III, W. Riley

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

51-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-87

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-35

15-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO leads series 1-0

Jan 10

NO128@

WSH107today

Mar 8

WSH118@

NO138

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO-14860%

WSH+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -3.5↗SpreadBet NO -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat WSH 128-107. T. Murphy III led the way with 35 points and 8 rebounds. NO outscored the other side 32-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

107 PTS · 34 REB · 26 AST

GS 95

Bench(6)

21 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 12

WSHstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

Bench(6)

54 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH1st Quarter · 8:45 · 8-9

+22pp→ 48% WP

Derik Queen · bad pass turnover (Tre Johnson steals)

WSH2nd Quarter · 3:24 · 45-43

+9pp→ 47% WP

Micah Peavy · shooting foul

WSH2nd Quarter · 4:08 · 45-42

+21pp→ 38% WP

Derik Queen · out of bounds bad pass turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	28	32	40	28	128
WSH	26	24	34	23	107

Period scoring

NO won 4 · WSH won 0

Williamson 9

Branham 10

Williamson 9

Vukcevic 8

III 15

Queen 8

Fears 8

Vukcevic 19

WSH

Shooting comparison

WSH

54%

51-95

43%

37-87

32%

11-34

3PT

31%

11-35

63%

15-24

67%

22-33

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 128·WSH 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 128·WSH 107
Q4·21.6
Bub Carrington makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
NO 128·WSH 107
Q4·28.4
Derik Queen bad pass turnover (Malaki Branham steals)
·
NO 128·WSH 105
Q4·44.3
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
NO 128·WSH 105
Q4·46.7
Karlo Matkovic blocks AJ Johnson 's 5-foot running layup
· ·
NO 128·WSH 105
Q4·51.2
Jeremiah Fears lost ball turnover (AJ Johnson steals)
· ·
NO 128·WSH 105
Q4·55.3
Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 1 of 1
NO 128·WSH 105
Q4·55.3
Karlo Matkovic shooting foul
NO 128·WSH 104
Q4·55.3
Jordan Hawkins defensive goaltending violation
·
NO 128·WSH 104
Q4·55.3
Tristan Vukcevic makes driving layup
NO 128·WSH 104
Q4·1:03
Jordan Hawkins makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
· ·
NO 128·WSH 102
Q4·1:12
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
NO 126·WSH 102
Q4·1:16
Tristan Vukcevic misses 15-foot jumper
NO 126·WSH 102
Q4·1:32
Karlo Matkovic makes two point shot
NO 126·WSH 102
Q4·1:32
Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·1:33
Tristan Vukcevic blocks Derik Queen's driving layup
·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·1:49
Trey Alexander enters the game for Trey Murphy III
· ·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·1:49
Bub Carrington traveling turnover
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·1:59
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:02
Derik Queen misses 26-foot three point jumper
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:18
AJ Johnson traveling turnover
·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:31
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Bryce McGowens
· ·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:31
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Zion Williamson
·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:31
Tristan Vukcevic enters the game for Alex Sarr
·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:31
Wizards Full timeout
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:31
Trey Murphy III makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Derik Queen assists)
· ·
NO 124·WSH 102
Q4·2:41
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 122·WSH 102
Q4·2:44
Alex Sarr misses free throw 2 of 2
NO 122·WSH 102
Q4·2:44
AJ Johnson enters the game for Khris Middleton
· ·
NO 122·WSH 102

Betting line

NO -3.5·O/U 242.5·NO -148/WSH +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 128–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NO -3.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 242.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Deandre AytonWSH
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

WSH

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.3%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR