NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8BOS

TOR

23-16

117125

BOS

24-13

NBAFri, Jan 9FinalSeriesBOS leads series 3-0VegasBOS -9.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

16.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 24pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	25	15	7-10	0-2	1-1	-5	8	1
R. BarrettF · #9	28	19	6-15	3-5	4-4	-14	4	7
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	21	7	3-7	0-2	1-1	-16	2	1
I. QuickleyG · #5	35	17	6-16	4-10	1-2	-20	2	13
J. WalterG · #14	31	19	7-12	5-9	—	-20	6	1
Bench
J. BattleF · #77	12	2	1-2	0-1	—	+13	2	1
J. MogboF · #2	19	6	3-3	—	—	+1	3	3
A.J. LawsonG · #0	6	3	1-4	1-3	—	+2	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	24	13	4-8	3-6	2-2	+2	1	8
A. MartinG · #55	15	7	3-7	1-5	—	+3	1	3
G. DickG · #1	24	9	4-8	1-4	—	+14	1	1
Team		117	45-92	18-47	9-10		31	39
DNP: G. Temple, O. Agbaji

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	32	19	7-10	5-7	—	+23	5	2
N. QuetaC · #88	27	10	4-6	—	2-2	0	6	0
D. WhiteG · #9	38	18	7-14	2-7	2-2	+14	3	5
J. BrownG · #7	37	25	6-15	1-3	12-13	+17	8	7
P. PritchardG · #11	30	27	12-19	3-5	—	+11	5	8
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	21	6	3-8	—	—	+6	7	1
A. SimonsG · #4	26	15	6-11	3-4	—	-10	2	5
J. WalshG · #27	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	19	5	2-3	0-1	1-2	-12	4	0
Team		125	47-87	14-28	17-19		40	28
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, J. Minott, B. Scheierman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

45-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-87

FG %

18-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-28

9-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 3-0

Dec 7

BOS121@

TOR113

Dec 21

BOS112@

TOR96

Jan 10

TOR117@

BOS125today

Apr 5

TOR101@

BOS115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+28526%

BOS-36078%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -9.5↗SpreadBet BOS -9.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat TOR 125-117. P. Pritchard paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. Payton Pritchard's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 22 REB · 23 AST

GS 72

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 9 REB · 16 AST

GS 37

BOSstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST

GS 91

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 60-68

+24pp→ 83% WP

Payton Pritchard · enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez

TOR4th Quarter · 6:15 · 103-108

+6pp→ 16% WP

Ja'Kobe Walter · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	30	30	26	31	117
BOS	37	31	29	28	125

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · BOS won 3

Quickley 7

Hauser 23

Barrett 8

Simons 11

Barrett 5

Pritchard 34

Mamukelashvili 11

White 8

TOR

BOS

Shooting comparison

TOR

BOS

49%

45-92

54%

47-87

38%

18-47

3PT

50%

14-28

90%

9-10

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 430 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 117·BOS 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 117·BOS 125
+0.5pp
Q4·14.0
shot clock turnover
TOR 117·BOS 125
Q4·38.1
Gradey Dick makes driving layup (Jamal Shead assists)
·
TOR 117·BOS 125
Q4·44.7
Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
TOR 115·BOS 125
Q4·50.3
Payton Pritchard misses 11-foot two point shot
TOR 115·BOS 125
Q4·1:12
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 1-foot driving dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)
·
TOR 115·BOS 125
Q4·1:21
Payton Pritchard makes 9-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 113·BOS 125
Q4·1:37
Ja'Kobe Walter makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)
·
TOR 113·BOS 123
Q4·1:44
Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·1:48
Anfernee Simons misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·1:55
Luka Garza defensive rebound
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·1:57
Ja'Kobe Walter misses tip shot
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·1:57
Ja'Kobe Walter offensive rebound
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·2:06
Immanuel Quickley misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·2:29
Payton Pritchard makes driving layup
TOR 111·BOS 123
Q4·2:40
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes tip in dunk
TOR 111·BOS 121
Q4·2:40
Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound
TOR 109·BOS 121
Q4·2:51
Luka Garza blocks Immanuel Quickley 's 3-foot running layup
·
TOR 109·BOS 121
Q4·2:55
Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
TOR 109·BOS 121
Q4·3:00
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 109·BOS 121
Q4·3:00
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Sam Hauser
·
TOR 109·BOS 121
Q4·3:00
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 109·BOS 121
Q4·3:00
Gradey Dick shooting foul
TOR 109·BOS 120
+0.5pp
Q4·3:10
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 109·BOS 120
Q4·3:10
Luka Garza shooting foul
TOR 108·BOS 120
−0.8pp
Q4·3:10
Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 8-foot turnaround jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)
·
TOR 108·BOS 120
Q4·3:20
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Alijah Martin
·
TOR 106·BOS 120
Q4·3:20
Gradey Dick enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 106·BOS 120
Q4·3:20
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 106·BOS 120

Betting line

BOS -9.5·O/U 223.5·TOR +285/BOS -360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Toronto Raptors, 125–117.

TOR +9.5 cashed (BOS won by 8). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · G
DEFL3.496
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

BOS

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR