NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1POR

HOU

22-12

102103

POR

18-20

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -7.5

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Deni Avdija

F · #8

27.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 4:10

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	37	14-26	2-6	7-9	-3	4	0
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	37	6	2-13	1-7	1-1	+1	4	2
T. EasonF · #17	31	15	5-18	2-8	3-4	+3	13	3
S. AdamsC · #12	30	7	3-6	—	1-2	+3	11	4
A. ThompsonG · #1	39	24	8-16	1-4	7-11	+6	12	6
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	14	3	1-4	1-2	—	-4	3	0
C. CapelaC · #30	12	2	1-3	—	—	-4	3	2
A. HolidayG · #0	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	0
J. OkogieG · #20	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-3	4	2
R. SheppardG · #15	22	8	3-10	1-7	1-2	-5	2	1
Team		102	37-99	8-36	20-29		57	20
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	39	14	5-10	2-7	2-2	+10	6	3
D. AvdijaF · #8	39	41	13-24	2-9	13-15	0	6	2
D. ClinganC · #23	31	12	5-9	2-6	—	-1	7	3
S. SharpeG · #17	34	20	7-17	3-6	3-6	-3	0	3
S. CissokoG · #91	16	0	0-3	0-2	—	-12	2	1
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	18	3	1-2	—	1-2	-1	4	2
Y. HansenC · #16	17	3	1-4	1-3	—	+2	3	2
C. LoveG · #2	29	10	4-12	2-6	—	+5	7	4
R. RupertG · #21	18	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	3	1
Team		103	36-83	12-40	19-25		38	21
DNP: J. Grant, K. Murray, D. Reath, J. Holiday, M. Thybulle, J. Cooke

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

POR

Home

37-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-83

FG %

8-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-40

20-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 15

POR116@

HOU140

Jan 8

HOU102@

POR103today

Jan 10

HOU105@

POR111

Mar 7

POR99@

HOU106

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-27073%

POR+22031%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -7.5↗SpreadBet HOU -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat HOU 103-102. D. Avdija led the way with 41 points and 6 rebounds. Amen Thompson's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 44 REB · 15 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

13 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 7

PORstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 48.9 · 97-103

+19pp→ 93% WP

Deni Avdija · makes 2-foot two point shot (Toumani Camara assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 31.9 · 97-103

+24pp→ 29% WP

Toumani Camara · shooting foul

HOU4th Quarter · 4:10 · 91-93

+31pp→ 33% WP

Amen Thompson · makes 5-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	22	25	28	27	102
POR	25	32	24	22	103

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · POR won 2

Durant 10

Avdija 10

Eason 7

Sharpe 9

Durant 9

Avdija 14

Durant 12

Cissoko 10

HOU

POR

Shooting comparison

HOU

POR

37%

37-99

43%

36-83

22%

8-36

3PT

30%

12-40

69%

20-29

76%

19-25

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
HOU 102·POR 103
+4pp
Q4·0.8
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 102·POR 103
+3pp
Q4·2.1
Kevin Durant misses 19-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 102·POR 103
+17pp
Q4·5.3
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.3
Robert Williams III enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.3
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.3
Shaedon Sharpe bad pass turnover
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.3
(00:05.3) [Rockets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Rockets] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
HOU 102·POR 103
−9pp
Q4·5.3
Rockets Coach's Challenge
HOU 102·POR 103
+2pp
Q4·5.9
Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Clint Capela
·
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Josh Okogie enters the game for Steven Adams
·
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Caleb Love enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Trail Blazers Full timeout
HOU 102·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 102·POR 103
+8pp
Q4·5.9
Clint Capela enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 101·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Steven Adams enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.
·
HOU 101·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 101·POR 103
−2pp
Q4·5.9
Robert Williams III enters the game for Caleb Love
·
HOU 100·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Sidy Cissoko
·
HOU 100·POR 103
Q4·5.9
Sidy Cissoko personal take foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 100·POR 103
−9pp
Q4·8.0
Tari Eason defensive rebound
HOU 100·POR 103
+1pp
Q4·10.6
Caleb Love misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
HOU 100·POR 103
−1pp
Q4·31.9
Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 100·POR 103
+2pp
Q4·31.9
Rockets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
HOU 99·POR 103
+6pp
Q4·31.9
Amen Thompson misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 99·POR 103
−19pp
Q4·31.9
Josh Okogie enters the game for Steven Adams
·
HOU 99·POR 103
Q4·31.9
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Toumani CamaraBIG MOMENT
·
HOU 99·POR 103
+31pp
Q4·31.9
(00:31.9) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Trail Blazers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
HOU 97·POR 103
+27pp

Betting line

HOU -7.5·O/U 222.5·HOU -270/POR +220

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off Houston Rockets, 103–102. It came down to the final possession.

POR +7.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

POR

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.6

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR