NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4OKC

UTAH

12-24

125129

OKC

31-7

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesOKC leads series 3-0VegasOKC -19.5

UTAH · top performer

Lauri Markkanen

F · #23

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

39.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 42pp · 4th Quarter · 3.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	44	29	11-19	3-7	4-5	-1	13	1
B. SensabaughF · #28	32	13	6-12	0-5	1-1	+8	5	1
J. NurkicC · #30	33	15	6-16	0-1	3-4	+13	15	4
S. MykhailiukG · #10	27	8	3-8	0-5	2-3	+7	7	6
K. GeorgeG · #3	43	25	9-22	2-9	5-5	0	7	11
Bench
K. FilipowskiF · #22	4	2	1-6	—	—	-7	5	0
T. HendricksF · #0	14	5	2-5	1-2	—	-13	2	1
C. WilliamsF · #5	14	5	2-4	1-2	—	-13	3	0
I. CollierG · #8	18	6	3-5	0-1	0-2	-13	1	5
A. BaileyG · #19	10	2	1-3	0-2	—	-2	1	0
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	27	15	5-11	4-7	1-1	+1	6	4
Team		125	49-111	11-41	16-21		65	33
DNP: K. Anderson, O. Tshiebwe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	40	23	9-15	0-3	5-8	+5	12	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	42	46	14-26	1-8	17-19	+9	6	6
L. DortG · #5	24	6	2-5	1-4	1-2	-10	6	0
A. WigginsG · #21	25	7	3-9	1-4	—	-2	7	4
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	41	17	6-15	1-5	4-4	-2	6	8
Bench
B. CarlsonC · #15	11	3	1-4	0-1	1-2	-1	5	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	8	2	1-2	0-1	—	+11	0	1
I. JoeG · #11	10	5	1-3	1-3	2-3	-9	1	0
C. WallaceG · #22	31	4	2-7	0-2	—	+12	6	0
A. MitchellG · #25	33	16	5-15	2-7	4-4	+7	2	5
Team		129	44-101	7-38	34-42		51	26
DNP: B. Barnhizer, C. Youngblood

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

49-111

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-101

FG %

11-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-38

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

34-42

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 3-0

Nov 22

OKC144@

UTAH112

Dec 8

OKC131@

UTAH101

Jan 8

UTAH125@

OKC129today

Apr 5

UTAH111@

OKC146

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -19.5

Between 10 and —

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+70013%

OKC-110092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -19.5↗SpreadBet OKC -19.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

19.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat UTAH 129-125. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 46 points and 6 assists. OKC outscored the other side 31-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 47 REB · 23 AST

GS 71

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 24

OKCstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 37 REB · 19 AST

GS 89

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH4th Quarter · 3.2 · 114-112

+39pp→ 91% WP

Lauri Markkanen · makes tip shot

UTAHOT · 41.5 · 121-122

+23pp→ 52% WP

Chet Holmgren · shooting foul

UTAHOT · 3:50 · 114-116

+22pp→ 31% WP

Lauri Markkanen · misses 1-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
UTAH	22	31	33	28	11	125
OKC	31	27	33	23	15	129

Period scoring

UTAH won 2 · OKC won 2

George 5

Gilgeous-Alexander 10

Jr. 12

Mitchell 6

Markkanen 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 16

Markkanen 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Markkanen 3

Wallace 10

UTAH

OKC

Shooting comparison

UTAH

OKC

44%

49-111

44%

44-101

27%

11-41

3PT

18%

7-38

76%

16-21

81%

34-42

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 125·OKC 129
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
UTAH 125·OKC 129
OT·0.1
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 125·OKC 129
OT·0.2
Keyonte George misses heave jump shot
UTAH 125·OKC 129
+1pp
OT·1.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 125·OKC 129
−0.7pp
OT·1.4
Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
UTAH 125·OKC 128
OT·1.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 125·OKC 128
OT·1.4
Keyonte George personal foul
UTAH 125·OKC 127
+3pp
OT·2.4
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
UTAH 125·OKC 127
OT·2.4
Thunder Full timeout
UTAH 125·OKC 127
OT·2.7
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)
·
UTAH 125·OKC 127
−2pp
OT·4.6
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 122·OKC 127
OT·4.6
Luguentz Dort makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 122·OKC 127
OT·4.6
Thunder offensive team rebound
UTAH 122·OKC 126
−0.8pp
OT·4.6
Luguentz Dort misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 122·OKC 126
−0.5pp
OT·4.6
Walter Clayton Jr. personal foul
UTAH 122·OKC 126
+1pp
OT·4.6
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
UTAH 122·OKC 126
+2pp
OT·7.3
Keyonte George misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 122·OKC 126
+5pp
OT·8.9
Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet HolmgrenBIG MOMENT
·
UTAH 122·OKC 126
+20pp
OT·8.9
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 122·OKC 126
OT·8.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 122·OKC 126
−4pp
OT·8.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 122·OKC 125
+1pp
OT·8.9
Keyonte George personal foulBIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 124
+9pp
OT·9.2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 124
+5pp
OT·12.2
Svi Mykhailiuk misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 124
+14pp
OT·29.7
Chet Holmgren makes tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 124
+12pp
OT·29.7
Chet Holmgren offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 122
+7pp
OT·29.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 122
−7pp
OT·41.5
Thunder Full timeout
UTAH 122·OKC 122
OT·41.5
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
UTAH 122·OKC 122
+7pp

Betting line

OKC -19.5·O/U 242.5·UTAH +700/OKC -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Utah Jazz, 129–125 in overtime. Decided by 4.

UTAH +19.5 cashed (OKC won by 4). Total cleared the 242.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.594
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

OKC

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.2%

117.6

PPG

114.9

118.5

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR