NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ORL

ORL

21-17

104103

BKN

11-23

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesORL leads series 2-0VegasORL -2.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Michael Porter Jr.

F · #17

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 67pp · OT · 0.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	43	30	11-19	1-4	7-8	-3	14	6
T. da SilvaF · #23	24	14	6-10	2-5	—	+13	3	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	39	20	8-14	0-4	4-5	-6	6	3
D. BaneG · #3	35	9	4-14	1-6	—	-6	3	3
A. BlackG · #0	37	5	2-11	1-4	—	-2	4	6
Bench
J. IsaacF · #1	10	0	0-1	—	—	+4	1	0
N. PendaF · #93	31	13	5-15	3-5	0-1	-8	11	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	14	6	3-5	—	0-2	+5	10	1
T. JonesG · #2	17	3	1-3	1-3	—	+4	1	5
J. HowardG · #13	14	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	+4	2	1
Team		104	41-96	9-33	13-18		55	28
DNP: J. Cain, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	38	34	12-24	8-18	2-2	+1	5	1
Z. WilliamsF · #1	27	5	2-6	1-5	—	+4	2	0
N. ClowneyF · #21	33	10	4-11	0-5	2-3	+12	3	4
D. SharpeC · #20	30	5	2-4	—	1-2	+7	7	5
E. DeminG · #8	32	18	5-9	5-8	3-5	+10	5	5
Bench
D. WolfF · #2	18	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	-2	5	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	23	7	3-4	—	1-4	-8	6	0
C. ThomasG · #24	24	10	3-11	1-5	3-4	-10	5	4
D. PowellG · #4	19	2	1-6	0-3	—	-11	3	0
N. TraoreG · #88	20	6	2-5	2-5	—	-8	3	2
Team		103	36-86	17-51	14-22		44	23
DNP: J. Wilson, T. Mann, T. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

41-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-86

FG %

9-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-51

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 2-0

Nov 15

BKN98@

ORL105

Jan 8

ORL104@

BKN103today

Feb 6

BKN98@

ORL118

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-12556%

BKN+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗SpreadBet ORL -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat BKN 104-103. P. Banchero paced them with 30 PTS, 14 REB, 6 AST. BKN outscored the other side 29-14 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 25 REB · 8 AST

GS 33

BKNstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 0.3 · 93-93

+42pp→ 50% WP

Paolo Banchero · misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot

BKNOT · 5.3 · 101-103

+34pp→ 85% WP

Egor Demin · makes 25-foot three point shot

ORLOT · 0.0 · 104-103

+67pp→ 100% WP

Paolo Banchero · makes 26-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
ORL	21	27	31	14	11	104
BKN	23	20	21	29	10	103

Period scoring

ORL won 3 · BKN won 2

Tristan 9

Jr. 12

Jr. 8

Banchero 11

Traore 12

Jr. 6

Jr. 8

Banchero 5

Demin 10

ORL

BKN

Shooting comparison

ORL

BKN

43%

41-96

42%

36-86

27%

9-33

3PT

33%

17-51

72%

13-18

64%

14-22

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
ORL 104·BKN 103
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
ORL 104·BKN 103
OT·0.0
(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
ORL 104·BKN 103
OT·0.0
Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 104·BKN 103
−67pp
OT·2.1
Michael Porter Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 101·BKN 103
−23pp
OT·3.6
Magic Full timeout
ORL 101·BKN 103
OT·3.6
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Noah Penda
·
ORL 101·BKN 103
OT·3.6
Drake Powell enters the game for Egor Demin
·
ORL 101·BKN 103
OT·3.6
Magic Full timeout
ORL 101·BKN 103
+5pp
OT·5.3
Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 101·BKN 103
+34pp
OT·16.2
Nets Full timeout
ORL 101·BKN 100
OT·16.2
Wendell Carter Jr. makes dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 101·BKN 100
−9pp
OT·23.1
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 99·BKN 100
−2pp
OT·27.2
Ziaire Williams misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 100
−9pp
OT·46.9
Ziaire Williams defensive rebound
ORL 99·BKN 100
+4pp
OT·49.8
Desmond Bane misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 100
+11pp
OT·1:07
Egor Demin makes 27-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 100
+16pp
OT·1:13
Anthony Black lost ball turnover (Ziaire Williams steals)
·
ORL 99·BKN 97
OT·1:13
Anthony Black vs. Ziaire Williams (Day'Ron Sharpe gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
ORL 99·BKN 97
+12pp
OT·1:13
Anthony Black defensive rebound
ORL 99·BKN 97
−3pp
OT·1:19
Michael Porter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 97
−9pp
OT·1:31
Nets defensive team rebound
ORL 99·BKN 97
+3pp
OT·1:34
Desmond Bane misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 97
+7pp
OT·1:51
Egor Demin makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 99·BKN 97
OT·1:51
Nets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 96
−7pp
OT·1:51
Egor Demin misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 96
−7pp
OT·1:51
Wendell Carter Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 99·BKN 96
+18pp
OT·1:55
Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound
ORL 99·BKN 96
+2pp
OT·1:59
Desmond Bane misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 99·BKN 96
+5pp
OT·2:13
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ORL 99·BKN 96
−2pp

Betting line

ORL -2.5·O/U 220.5·ORL -125/BKN +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 104–103 in overtime. It came down to the final possession.

BKN +2.5 cashed (ORL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
Cam ThomasMIL · G
USG%30.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high
Ben SarafBKN
3.7± 1.9high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

BKN

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.0%

45.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR