NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21PHI

WSH

10-26

110131

PHI

20-15

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesPHI leads series 3-0VegasPHI -16.5

WSH · top performer

Tre Johnson

G · #12

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Paul George

F · #8

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	25	6	3-7	0-2	—	-25	5	2
A. SarrC · #20	27	15	6-8	1-1	2-2	-24	7	3
B. CarringtonG · #7	40	18	5-11	5-10	3-3	-28	3	7
B. CoulibalyG · #0	28	18	7-14	2-5	2-2	-22	1	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	28	20	8-13	2-6	2-2	-9	5	3
Bench
A. GillF · #16	20	8	3-4	2-3	—	+1	4	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	16	9	4-10	1-2	—	+6	9	1
T. VukcevicF · #00	5	2	1-1	—	—	-3	0	1
M. BranhamG · #8	31	8	3-10	0-2	2-2	-9	4	8
AJ JohnsonG · #4	20	6	3-9	0-2	—	+8	4	2
Team		110	43-87	13-33	11-11		42	29
DNP: K. Middleton, C. Kispert

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	33	23	7-11	4-8	5-6	+25	4	5
D. BarlowF · #25	23	11	5-6	1-1	—	+22	6	2
J. EmbiidC · #21	25	28	10-14	1-2	7-8	+27	7	2
T. MaxeyG · #0	28	22	9-15	4-10	0-1	+20	3	8
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	13	4-13	1-6	4-4	+27	6	7
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	5	0	—	—	—	+3	0	3
J. WalkerF · #33	4	0	0-1	—	—	-5	0	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	6	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	0	0	0
A. DrummondC · #1	12	11	3-6	2-3	3-4	+15	4	1
A. BonaC · #30	10	2	1-1	—	—	-21	0	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	20	2	1-4	0-2	—	+3	3	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	26	16	5-9	1-3	5-5	-1	1	1
J. McCainG · #20	11	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-10	0	0
Team		131	45-84	14-37	27-32		34	30
DNP: K. Lowry, E. Gordon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

43-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-84

FG %

13-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-37

11-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 3-0

Oct 28

PHI139@

WSH134

Dec 3

WSH102@

PHI121

Jan 8

WSH110@

PHI131today

Apr 1

PHI153@

WSH131

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+57515%

PHI-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -16.5↗SpreadBet PHI -16.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 131-110. P. George led with 23 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. PHI outscored the other side 39-30 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 31

PHIstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 26 REB · 24 AST

GS 96

Bench(8)

34 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	30	26	24	30	110
PHI	37	25	30	39	131

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · PHI won 3

Coulibaly 7

Maxey 16

Johnson 12

George 13

Coulibaly 7

Embiid 12

Carrington 6

Grimes 14

WSH

PHI

Shooting comparison

WSH

PHI

49%

43-87

54%

45-84

39%

13-33

3PT

38%

14-37

100%

11-11

84%

27-32

Play-by-play · 429 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 110·PHI 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 110·PHI 131
Q4·18.3
(00:18.3) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
WSH 110·PHI 131
Q4·18.3
AJ Johnson makes 1-foot running dunk (Bub Carrington assists)
· ·
WSH 110·PHI 131
Q4·20.7
Anthony Gill defensive rebound
WSH 108·PHI 131
Q4·24.4
Malaki Branham blocks Justin Edwards 's 26-foot three point jumper
·
WSH 108·PHI 131
Q4·41.6
Tristan Vukcevic lost ball turnover (Quentin Grimes steals)
·
WSH 108·PHI 131
Q4·48.6
Adem Bona makes 1-foot dunk (Trendon Watford assists)
·
WSH 108·PHI 131
Q4·58.7
Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 108·PHI 129
Q4·1:08
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 105·PHI 129
Q4·1:08
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 105·PHI 128
Q4·1:08
Malaki Branham personal foul
WSH 105·PHI 127
Q4·1:16
Anthony Gill makes 1-foot dunk (Tristan Vukcevic assists)
·
WSH 105·PHI 127
Q4·1:32
Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)
·
WSH 103·PHI 127
Q4·1:46
Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)
·
WSH 103·PHI 124
Q4·2:00
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 100·PHI 124
Q4·2:00
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 100·PHI 123
Q4·2:00
Adem Bona enters the game for Andre Drummond
·
WSH 100·PHI 122
Q4·2:00
Bub Carrington loose ball foul
WSH 100·PHI 122
Q4·2:00
Bub Carrington lost ball turnover
WSH 100·PHI 122
Q4·2:08
Andre Drummond makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 100·PHI 122
Q4·2:08
Andre Drummond makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 100·PHI 121
Q4·2:08
Bub Carrington shooting foul
WSH 100·PHI 120
Q4·2:21
Anthony Gill out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 100·PHI 120
Q4·2:39
Andre Drummond makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)
·
WSH 100·PHI 120
Q4·2:58
Tristan Vukcevic makes 10-foot jumper (Malaki Branham assists)
·
WSH 100·PHI 117
Q4·3:02
Andre Drummond personal foul
WSH 98·PHI 117
Q4·3:15
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 98·PHI 117
Q4·3:15
Bub Carrington shooting foul
WSH 98·PHI 116
Q4·3:15
Quentin Grimes makes 1-foot driving dunk (Andre Drummond assists)
·
WSH 98·PHI 116

Betting line

PHI -16.5·O/U 233.5·WSH +575/PHI -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Washington Wizards, 131–110. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -16.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Deandre AytonWSH
9.1± 4.7high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium
Rayan RupertPHI
1.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

PHI

53.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

46.0%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR