NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15DET

CHI

17-20

93108

DET

28-9

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesDET leads series 2-1VegasDET -7.5

CHI · top performer

Nikola Vucevic

C · #9

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Isaiah Stewart

F · #28

27.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 28pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. OkoroF · #35	25	2	1-4	0-2	—	-4	4	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	33	20	7-15	4-7	2-3	-9	3	1
N. VucevicC · #9	32	20	9-20	2-6	—	-10	16	4
K. HuerterG · #13	30	8	4-13	0-6	—	-9	3	4
T. JonesG · #30	30	6	1-7	0-1	4-4	-2	7	12
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	15	6	2-5	2-3	—	-4	4	1
D. TerryF · #7	12	0	0-2	—	—	-6	0	1
J. PhillipsF · #15	14	5	2-4	1-3	—	-4	2	0
J. CarterG · #5	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
A. DosunmuG · #11	31	24	10-15	4-6	—	-20	1	3
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		93	37-87	13-34	6-9		45	27
DNP: C. White

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. RobinsonF · #55	23	12	4-9	4-7	—	-1	1	1
P. ReedF · #7	26	9	4-10	1-3	—	+1	6	6
I. StewartF · #28	30	31	14-17	2-3	1-2	+9	3	1
J. IveyG · #23	20	8	3-7	0-2	2-2	-6	3	4
A. ThompsonG · #9	29	11	5-11	—	1-2	+3	8	3
Bench
T. SmithF · #35	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	26	11	5-11	1-3	—	+12	5	0
J. GreenG · #31	25	11	4-9	1-5	2-2	+16	2	1
C. LeVertG · #8	12	5	2-4	1-3	—	+4	2	3
M. SasserG · #25	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	0
C. LanierG · #20	12	8	3-5	2-3	—	+16	1	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	28	2	1-8	0-3	—	+20	6	15
Team		108	45-92	12-33	6-8		39	35
DNP: C. Cunningham

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

37-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-92

FG %

13-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-33

6-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-8

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 2-1

Oct 23

DET111@

CHI115

Nov 13

CHI113@

DET124

Jan 8

CHI93@

DET108today

Feb 22

DET126@

CHI110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+26028%

DET-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -7.5↗SpreadBet DET -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CHI 108-93. I. Stewart paced them with 31 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. DET outscored the other side 32-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

GS 24

DETstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST

GS 63

Bench(7)

37 PTS · 18 REB · 20 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET4th Quarter · 11:39 · 77-79

+11pp→ 64% WP

Ronald Holland II · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)

CHI3rd Quarter · 5:03 · 67-63

+28pp→ 55% WP

Patrick Williams · lost ball turnover (Paul Reed steals)

CHI4th Quarter · 5:56 · 85-92

+13pp→ 13% WP

Isaac Okoro · enters the game for Julian Phillips

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	24	26	27	16	93
DET	30	22	24	32	108

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · DET won 2

Dosunmu 9

Stewart 11

Williams 6

Stewart 6

Buzelis 8

Stewart 8

Vucevic 5

Full 20

CHI

DET

Shooting comparison

CHI

DET

43%

37-87

49%

45-92

38%

13-34

3PT

36%

12-33

67%

6-9

75%

6-8

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 93·DET 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 93·DET 108
Q4·22.6
Julian Phillips makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
CHI 93·DET 108
Q4·37.9
Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
CHI 90·DET 108
Q4·55.6
Tolu Smith defensive rebound
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·57.8
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·57.8
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·57.8
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·57.8
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·57.8
Tolu Smith shooting foul
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·1:12
Tolu Smith enters the game for Paul Reed
·
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·1:12
Ausar Thompson personal foul
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·1:21
Javonte Green makes two point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)
·
CHI 90·DET 105
Q4·1:21
Jevon Carter lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:34
Julian Phillips enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:34
Dalen Terry enters the game for Tre Jones
·
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:34
Jevon Carter enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:34
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:34
Paul Reed enters the game for Isaiah Stewart
·
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:34
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 90·DET 103
Q4·1:36
Ausar Thompson makes 4-foot dunk (Isaiah Stewart assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 90·DET 103
+13pp
Q4·1:53
Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)
·
CHI 90·DET 101
Q4·2:11
Isaiah Stewart makes 5-foot two point shot (Chaz Lanier assists)
·
CHI 87·DET 101
Q4·2:26
Matas Buzelis personal foul
CHI 87·DET 99
Q4·2:26
Tre Jones bad pass turnover (Javonte Green steals)
·
CHI 87·DET 99
Q4·2:33
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
CHI 87·DET 99
Q4·2:33
Chaz Lanier misses 29-foot three point jumper
CHI 87·DET 99
Q4·2:48
Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound
CHI 87·DET 99
Q4·2:50
Nikola Vucevic misses 30-foot three point jumper
CHI 87·DET 99
Q4·2:55
Bulls delay of game violation
CHI 87·DET 99

Betting line

DET -7.5·O/U 227.5·CHI +260/DET -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Chicago Bulls, 108–93.

DET -7.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Paul ReedDET · F
TS%65.092
Duncan RobinsonDET · F
TS%62.985

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high
Tre JonesCHI
17.5± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

DET

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

116.3

PPG

114.9

115.9

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR