New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL

NYM

11-9-2

MIA

8-12-3

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

3,416 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Griffin ConineMIA
0.5± 1.2medium

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

MIA

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.716

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

4.10

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.98

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · MIA 5 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	5
MIA	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.286	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.219	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
B. BichetteSS	.267	3	1	2	5	1	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Robert Jr.CF	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.360	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. TauchmanRF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. TaylorCF	.321	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
V. BrujanSS	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. HernándezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. De OleoSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Willhoite3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MosqueraLF	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. CuevasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.158	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. VillavicencioSS	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	5	10	5	1	2	14

Player

.286

.219

.267

.286

.273

.360

.263

.280

.321

.231

.000

.000

.000

.100

.000

.158

.300

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	4.0	0	0	0	0	4	52
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	17
T. MyersRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	3	39
J. BrewerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	13
C. CosperRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	2	18
Z. PeekSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	5	5	5	4	11	154

Player

4.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.316	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
O. CaissieRF	.100	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. Morel1B	.135	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.133	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. Berry1B	.040	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BastidasSS	.148	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. CabaSS	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.063	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. ColeyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jenkins-CowartOF	.500	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
M. Snyder3B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
MccutcheonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McDowellOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	5	5	5	1	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AlcantaraSP	4.0	3	2	2	1	5	70
A. NardiRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	26
R. SnellingSP	3.0	6	3	3	1	5	64
J. ReynosoP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	10	5	5	2	14	170

Team

NYM

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs NYM.