Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

TOR

7-10-2

PHI

6-11-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

8,921 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
3.0± 3.2high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.7± 2.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 4.1high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
1.0± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.0± 2.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.1medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

PHI

.698

OPS

.718

.704

.309

OBP

◀

.319

.302

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.38

4.10

Team ERA

4.17

4.11

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

TOR 5 · PHI 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	R
TOR	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	5
PHI	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	8

Final play

“Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.188	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.125	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.333	2	3	2	1	1	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.393	3	0	1	3	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.308	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. KasevichSS	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. SchreckLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.192	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RiveraSS	.235	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	.438	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. ParkerC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.300	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.440	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. NimmalaSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. PinangoLF	.130	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McAdoo2B	.240	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	10	5	1	2	5

Player

.188

.125

.333

.393

.308

.333

.200

.192

.235

.438

.286

.300

.440

.250

.130

.208

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C.J. Van EykSP	2.1	4	6	6	2	1	47
A. BastardoRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	22
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
J. HahnRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	21
J. FlemingRP	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	7.0	6	8	8	4	4	120

Player

2.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

2.0

0.0

Team

7.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.167	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.158	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.333	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.444	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
O. KempLF	.241	1	2	0	0	0	2	1
J. CrawfordCF	.250	3	2	2	0	0	0	1
D. MooreCF	.200	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.273	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
B. RinconSS	.238	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Escobar2B	.105	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. LeonRF	.261	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.316	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RickettsC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeMartiniSS	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		25	8	6	7	1	4	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	3.2	5	3	3	1	3	67
C. ShugartRP	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	26
Z. PopRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
G. CabreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
J. HernándezRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	16
Team	8.0	10	5	5	2	5	135

Team

TOR

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs TOR.