St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+2WSH

STL

9-8-1

WSH

10-4-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,749 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium
Andre PallanteSTL
2.4± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

WSH

.717

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.324

OBP

◀

.319

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.69

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

STL 1 · WSH 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
WSH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Wetherholt2B	.263	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.263	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.160	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.111	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. ChurchLF	.263	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. RodriguezC	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Moore2B	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.037	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. PenaCF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. HoneymanLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.273	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. NickensOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	0	3	7

Player

.158

.263

.263

.231

.160

.143

.111

.263

.143

.174

.238

.037

.500

.000

.273

.273

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	3.2	2	1	1	2	3	61
I. BedellSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. BruihlRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
M. SvansonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	10
R. FernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
G. MorenoRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	18
Team	8.0	8	3	3	2	7	116

Player

3.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.222	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. WoodRF	.091	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. LileLF	.174	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.235	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.176	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. KingSS	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mervis1B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. MadeSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RogersLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. FranklinLF	.294	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Ortiz1B	.125	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Lipscomb3B	.316	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. JordanCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	8	3	0	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	3.0	0	0	0	1	2	40
B. LordRP	3.0	3	1	1	1	1	38
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
G. VarlandRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	5	1	1	3	7	122

Team

STL

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs STL.