Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+4COL

COL

9-8-1

117

SEA

5-13-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,089 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.8high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

SEA

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.695

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

5.47

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.72

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 11 · SEA 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	3	2	11
SEA	0	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FreemanRF	.357	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. SullivanC	.524	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. CondonOF	.414	4	1	2	2	0	1	1
T. JohnstonRF	.324	3	1	2	3	0	1	1
B. FulfordDH	.273	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
A. Amador2B	.219	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. AvansLF	.100	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
V. MachinSS	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Lopez2B	.259	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. HillRF	.600	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
K. McCannC	.143	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. MessinaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Riggio2B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JorgeSS	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	11	12	11	3	3	10

Player

.357

.524

.414

.324

.273

.219

.100

.185

.259

.600

.143

.000

.333

.286

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DollanderSP	3.1	7	4	4	1	1	62
T. ShookSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. AgnosRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	17
K. ThompsonRP	3.2	8	3	3	1	0	76
C. DentonP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	7
Team	9.0	15	7	7	4	2	163

Player

3.1

0.1

1.1

3.2

0.1

Team

9.0

163

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. RoblesRF	.083	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.217	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.125	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.267	5	2	3	3	1	0	1
C. JoeRF	.321	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. Emerson3B	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. ThomasLF	.423	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
L. Rivas3B	.273	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. DavisCF	.379	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ArroyoSS	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. ReetzC	.133	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rodden2B	.476	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. Taylor1B	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.300	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		38	7	15	7	2	4	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	3.1	4	2	2	1	3	51
J. FerrerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	7
M. BrashRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	16
C. VargasRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	12
Y. ZuluetaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
C. LawrenceRP	3.0	6	8	7	1	2	56
Team	9.0	12	11	10	3	10	154

Team

COL

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs COL.