
COL
9-8-1

SEA
5-13-1
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
SEA
.739
OPS
.718
.695
.324
OBP
.319
.313
4.61
Runs / G
4.50
4.02
5.47
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.72
1.51
WHIP
1.31
▶1.19
7.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
COL wins
COL 11 · SEA 7 (by 4)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
COL · top performer
Glenallen Hill
RF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
SEA · top performer

Brock Rodden
2B
2-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
Biggest swing: 51pp · Top 8th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .357 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .524 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .414 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .324 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .273 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| .219 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .100 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| .185 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .259 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .600 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .143 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .286 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 39 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 62 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | |
| 3.2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 76 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 163 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .083 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .217 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .125 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .267 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .321 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .423 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .273 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .379 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .375 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .133 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .476 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 51 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | |
| 3.0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 56 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 154 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCOL
SEA
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
15
11
Runs
7
0
Errors
2
Team stats
COL
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
11
Runs
7
12
Hits
15
0
Errors
2
28
TB
26
3
HR
2
3
BB
4
10
K
2
12
LOB
22
Season series
COL leads series 1-0
How it ended
COL beat SEA 11-7. G. Hill led the way — 1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS. G. Hill's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (51pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SEA vs COL
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJohnston · tripled to center, McCann scored and Condon scored.
Rodden · homered to right center.
G. Hill · homered to right (371 feet), Avans scored and Jorge scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Period scoring
COL won 4 · SEA won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Amador 1
Young 1
Inn 3
Johnston 1
Crawford 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Condon 1
Inn 6
Thomas 1
Inn 7
Johnston 2
Rodden 1
Inn 8
Hill 3
Inn 9
Fulford 2
Play-by-play · 654 plays
End of the 9th inning
COL 11·SEA 7
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Thomas lined out to center.
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
−1pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Cade Denton pitches to Rhylan Thomas
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
W. Wilson walked.
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
+0.7pp
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
C. Taylor to second on fielder's indifference.
·
COL 11·SEA 7
C. Taylor to second on fielder's indifference.
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Cade Denton pitches to Will Wilson
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Denton relieved K. Thompson
·
COL 11·SEA 7
·
COL 11·SEA 7
C. Taylor walked.
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Keegan Thompson pitches to Carson Taylor
·
COL 11·SEA 7
C. Taylor hit for Joe
·
COL 11·SEA 7
·
COL 11·SEA 7
Young grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Rodden out at second.
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
−3pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
COL 11·SEA 7
Recap · MLB
olorado Rockies went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 11–7.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands