Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+7NYY

TOR

7-9-2

NYY

12-6

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

9,835 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Jasson DominguezNYY
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.9± 2.6high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high
Ben RiceNYY
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

NYY

.701

OPS

.718

▶

.749

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.93

4.16

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.32

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 1 · NYY 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
NYY	0	0	4	0	0	1	2	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.273	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. SanchezRF	.226	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
E. JimenezDH	.281	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lantigua2B	.458	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Keys3B	.208	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. NimmalaSS	.263	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. McAdoo2B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ClaseLF	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaseyOF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. PinangoLF	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BohrofenOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. PlanchartC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.467	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tirotta3B	.174	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	1	10

Player

.174

.273

.226

.281

.333

.458

.208

.263

.240

.263

.200

.091

.000

.000

.467

.174

.214

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	3.1	4	4	4	1	3	60
C. LeeRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22
L. EstradaRP	1.2	4	3	3	1	0	36
B. CellucciRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
C. DallasSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	17
Team	8.0	10	8	8	3	6	146

Player

3.1

0.2

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.182	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. GrichukDH	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
C. BellingerLF	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. StantonDH	.364	3	2	2	3	2	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.308	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.120	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Cabrera3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.176	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Martinez Jr.1B	.278	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. HenryC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.286	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. Hardman1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. EllisCF	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. GabrielsonCF	.250	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. CoronaCF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrnelasSS	.300	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
Team		34	8	10	8	4	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	3.2	2	1	1	0	6	46
K. CastroRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	15
C. LagrangeSP	4.0	0	0	0	1	3	42
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	10	103

Team

TOR

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs TOR.