Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+1MIN

DET

4-9-4

MIN

6-11-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

8,616 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

MIN

.710

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.86

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

DET 1 · MIN 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. McGonigleSS	.304	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.375	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.238	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. SlaterRF	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.360	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RogersC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CruzCF	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. PeckSS	.350	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. StrongCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.136	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MeyersOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BigbieRF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. LeeOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Anderson2B	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. JulksLF	.389	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HadeenSS	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PenneySS	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	4	1	0	3	14

Player

.111

.304

.375

.238

.261

.360

.286

.240

.350

.000

.136

.000

.250

.000

.231

.389

.300

.286

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RaineyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
S. GuentherRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18
D. AndersonRP	2.2	1	0	0	1	4	45
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	17
T. MattisonSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
C. WaitesRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	20
M. SeelingerRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	22
Team	8.1	7	2	2	5	7	158

Player

1.0

1.1

2.2

1.0

1.0

0.1

1.0

Team

8.1

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WallnerRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.357	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.360	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
T. LarnachLF	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodenLF	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.174	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. CardenasC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RosarioRF	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Sabato1B	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. RuizC	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.063	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.261	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
Y. HerreraSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HessOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.316	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
Team		30	2	7	2	0	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	5.0	3	1	1	2	7	69
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
J. TopaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
A. BandaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
Team	9.0	4	1	1	3	14	128

Team

DET

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs DET.