Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+3HOU

HOU

7-8-3

MIA

6-10-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

2,434 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

MIA

.726

OPS

◀

.718

.711

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.50

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 4 · MIA 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	4
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ColeLF	.158	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Altuve2B	.136	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.308	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.292	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. MeyersCF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
CJ Alexander1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MatthewsCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. SalazarC	.188	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. PowellSS	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. GarciaC	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SaccoSS	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RamirezSS	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WakefieldRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. LytleOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ferreras2B	.111	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	4	6	4	3	3	12

Player

.158

.136

.308

.250

.292

.111

.000

.231

.188

.333

.154

.083

.286

.250

.000

.200

.111

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ImaiSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	4	35
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
S. ArrighettiSP	3.0	1	1	1	1	6	57
C. RoaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	6
A. MaldonadoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	2	1	1	1	12	127

Player

3.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.130	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. ConineLF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.273	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. RuizRF	.158	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NavarretoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BastidasSS	.235	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Berry1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Beshears1B	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SalasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JohnsonCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AldermanRF	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PintarCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	2	1	1	1	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	6	48
J. JunkSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	30
B. BlalockSP	2.0	2	2	2	1	1	27
C. GibsonRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	22
S. VasquezP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	6	4	4	3	12	138

Team

HOU

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs HOU.