San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+3SF

15-3

6-11-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

5,833 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low
Tyler MahleSF
5.2± 2.1low

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high
Rafael DeversSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.20

4.31

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.36

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

7.9

K / 9

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 5 · KC 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	5
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. GilbertCF	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.400	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.333	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
J. EncarnacionRF	.294	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
P. Harber3B	.320	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. OlivaCF	.407	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Holton1B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. BasabeSS	.476	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Fitzgerald2B	.172	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Furman2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. KilenSS	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. PorterC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. BanduraLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BravoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalezSS	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CartayaC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Astudillo3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Ceballos3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AhunaSS	.667	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. HillCF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	14	5	1	1	4

Player

.267

.400

.333

.294

.320

.407

.250

.476

.172

.200

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.200

.000

.000

.667

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MahleSP	3.0	1	0	0	3	1	47
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
S. BivensRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	28
M. FulmerRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	34
W. BednarSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	23
Team	9.0	3	2	2	4	9	145

Player

3.0

1.0

2.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.294	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. JensenC	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Rojas3B	.280	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Drury2B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. WatersLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.318	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. PinedaSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MartinRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Becker1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BrownC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HayesC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Johnson2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kulasingham1B	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RoccaforteCF	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. GentryRF	.222	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. DickersonSS	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. TorresCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		31	2	3	2	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. FalterRP	3.0	9	4	4	0	0	47
A. SanchezSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
A. LangeRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	17
J. CuasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
H. PattesonSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	14	5	5	1	4	122

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs SF.