Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+3CIN

MIL

8-9

CIN

9-8

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

5,010 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium

Hits

William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 0.7high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.4high
William ContrerasMIL
1.9± 2.8high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high
Spencer SteerCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

CIN

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.310

5.16

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.57

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

MIL 3 · CIN 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
CIN	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. FrelickRF	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.370	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
G. SanchezC	.259	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.261	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. LockridgeLF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. Hamilton3B	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. McGuireC	.143	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
L. LaraCF	.290	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MadeSS	.321	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Burke1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jor. AdamsCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. GuilarteSS	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. PrattSS	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Adamczewski2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Baez3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. JonesLF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. MurraySS	.375	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	9	3	2	5	11

Player

.143

.370

.259

.261

.300

.286

.143

.290

.321

.200

.000

1.000

.263

.200

.000

.267

.375

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GasserSP	2.2	5	4	4	0	4	62
J. BrocaRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	9
J. KoenigRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
G. AndersonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	20
C. YohoRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	14
S. PeraltaRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	16
Team	8.0	10	6	6	3	9	151

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. McLain2B	.607	3	2	3	1	1	0	0
T. StephensonC	.176	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. MyersCF	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. MarteRF	.276	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrevinoC	.316	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.045	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. SasakiCF	.667	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. AcostaSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. NevilleOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Ibarra1B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. JorgeCF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HendrickRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
P.J. HigginsC	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Callahan3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Jimenez3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Sanchez3B	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	10	6	3	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	3.2	6	2	2	2	5	69
B. LeibrandtRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	10
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
S. MollRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	28
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
Team	9.0	9	3	3	5	11	157

Team

MIL

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs MIL.