Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

6-12-1

CHC

8-10

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

12,026 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 2.8medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHC

.707

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.92

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.24

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

KC 8 · CHC 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	1	0	2	2	0	0	1	1	1	8
CHC	0	5	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. IsbelCF	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.154	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.636	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.286	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.176	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
B. SquiresOF	.364	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
N. SailorsOF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. ScottLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. PelzerOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Y. RicardoSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. MitchellC	.222	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. Russell3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. KempSS	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
H. UmC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CericeP	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	8	7	5	3	9

Player

.143

.250

.154

.250

.636

.263

.286

.176

.364

1.000

.500

.000

.500

.222

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SpenceRP	2.0	4	5	5	1	0	42
A. PérezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	22
M. BlackRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	23
F. MozzicatoSP	1.0	4	2	2	1	1	33
Z. CawyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. SearsRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	20
Team	8.1	13	9	9	4	4	161

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

8.1

161

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.294	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
M. BallesterosDH	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.412	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ConfortoDH	.353	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.350	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. CarlsonLF	.409	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. ShawRF	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.364	3	1	1	4	1	0	0
D. AlcantaraOF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RojasSS	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DelgadoLF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeanCF	.148	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.161	2	1	2	2	0	0	0
B. BatemanCF	.438	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Halbach3B	.250	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	9	13	9	2	4	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	4.0	5	5	4	1	1	59
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
H. HarveyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
H. MilnerRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	14
J. WebbRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	14
G. HollowellRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	23
Team	9.0	8	8	6	3	9	133

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs KC.