Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+5BAL

PIT

12-6

BAL

8-9-2

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

6,066 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.0± 2.9medium

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

BAL

.755

OPS

◀

.718

.337

OBP

◀

.319

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.61

4.14

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.36

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.37

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PIT 2 · BAL 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
BAL	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.320	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. O'HearnRF	.368	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.316	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.095	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.304	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Yorke3B	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. GriffinSS	.192	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Simon2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.125	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. Wendzel3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Cimillo1B	.200	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. FletcherRF	.240	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Gourson2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GarciaRF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Johnson2B	.368	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. WilliamsSS	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	4	2	1	4	5

Player

.320

.368

.250

.316

.095

.304

.269

.143

.192

.000

.125

.167

.200

.240

.250

.500

.368

.263

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DavisRP	4.2	3	3	3	1	5	64
T. YulieSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
J. BimbiRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	0	30
J. MeisSP	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	24
Team	8.0	7	7	7	3	9	138

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.250	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.241	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.296	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. KjerstadLF	.267	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.208	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. TaverasCF	.227	2	1	0	1	0	1	2
We. Wilson3B	.353	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarreroSS	.115	3	2	1	3	1	0	1
B. Smith2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Guzman2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezOF	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Estrada2B	.056	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.176	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	7	7	7	2	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	5.0	1	0	0	1	2	73
C. BassittSP	4.0	3	2	2	3	3	77
Team	9.0	4	2	2	4	5	150

Team

PIT

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs PIT.