Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+2ATL

6-12-1

ATL

12-4-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

4,788 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.720

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.20

WHIP

1.31

1.21

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

TB 3 · ATL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3
ATL	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. LuxLF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. FortesC	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.267	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MeltonLF	.160	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.360	3	1	2	3	1	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Davidson1B	.192	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SabolC	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.045	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. LevinsC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. OvernOF	.222	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. OlivaresRF	.048	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. WilliamsSS	.350	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HujsakOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Taylor3B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
X. Isaac1B	.308	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	7	3	1	2	12

Player

.400

.167

.235

.267

.160

.360

.192

.192

.250

.188

.045

.100

.222

.048

.350

.000

.267

.308

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	3.0	1	1	1	3	5	66
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
B. BakerRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	17
I. SeymourRP	2.1	1	0	0	0	4	31
L. GuerreroRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	15
Team	8.0	9	5	5	3	12	142

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

2.1

0.2

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonSS	.318	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Olson1B	.292	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
A. Riley3B	.429	1	0	1	1	0	2	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.476	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.421	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Wisely2B	.263	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Gil3B	.158	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BrookmanC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Verdung2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConleySS	.375	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. HicklenCF	.158	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. EspinozaSS	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. GuanipaCF	.333	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. MaciasOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. TavarezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	9	5	2	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. StriderSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	5	61
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
M. PerezSP	4.0	4	3	3	1	6	51
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	12	125

Team

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs TB.