Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 11, 2026

FINAL+10ATH

ATH

9-10

133

ARI

8-11

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

9,244 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.7medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

ARI

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.692

.327

OBP

◀

.319

.307

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.22

4.93

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.33

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 13 · ARI 3 (by 10)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	2	1	1	5	0	2	2	0	13
ARI	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.156	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. LangeliersC	.281	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.375	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
B. RookerDH	.290	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.393	3	4	3	2	1	1	0
A. Ibanez2B	.387	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
H. BolteCF	.375	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ElliottLF	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. Swift3B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. GonzalezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ServenC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. GuedezOF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. PachecoCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.160	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Stefanic2B	.409	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
B. BoserSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Mann3B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RamosOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		43	13	14	11	5	2	8

Player

.156

.281

.375

.290

.222

.393

.387

.375

.250

1.000

.000

.250

1.000

.000

.160

.409

.000

.286

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. MoralesSP	4.2	4	2	1	2	3	75
S. BarlowRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
H. HarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
N. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
N. HernandezRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
Team	9.0	5	3	2	2	9	125

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

125

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.345	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. SmithDH	.310	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaC	.125	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Ó. MercadoRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. Soler3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. FrancoLF	.000	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Rojas2B	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Valdez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DixSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AlpuriaOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Marte1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. LoganC	.556	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Serretti3B	.200	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. OrtizOF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. ClarkSS	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	5	3	2	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	3.1	2	3	3	1	4	56
Z. RussellRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	7
I. CampbellRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. HatchRP	2.0	5	5	3	1	1	38
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	22
K. GinkelRP	0.2	3	2	0	0	1	24
L. AlbrightRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
P. AbnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	14	13	9	2	8	175

Team

ATH

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs ATH.