
BOS
7-8

PIT
11-5
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.2%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
PIT
.694
OPS
.719
▶.754
.310
OBP
.319
▶.336
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.12
3.74
Team ERA
4.18
4.22
1.25
WHIP
1.31
1.30
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.2
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
PIT wins
BOS 7 · PIT 9 (by 2)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
BOS · top performer

Mickey Gasper
C
2-2
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
PIT · top performer

Billy Cook
RF
3-3
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 2nd Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .440 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .400 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .400 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .105 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .222 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .286 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .059 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .261 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .143 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .421 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .263 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 39 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 41 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | |
| 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 27 | |
| 0.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 31 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 28 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 183 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .348 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .214 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .294 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .438 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .313 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .056 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .304 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .294 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .389 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .167 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .667 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .154 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .235 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .294 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 35 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 58 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 3.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 55 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 156 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantBOS
PIT
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
13
Hits
12
7
Runs
9
0
Errors
2
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
PIT
Home
7
Runs
9
13
Hits
12
0
Errors
2
20
TB
21
1
HR
2
1
BB
6
9
K
10
16
LOB
22
Season series
PIT leads series 2-0
How it ended
PIT beat BOS 9-7. B. Cook led the way — 3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS. Cook's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).
Win probability
PIT vs BOS
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCook · doubled to center, Yorke scored and Ozuna scored.
Monasterio · singled to left, Ward scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.
Wong · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Monasterio out at second, Kiner-Falefa to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | — | 9 |
Period scoring
BOS won 3 · PIT won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Cook 2
Inn 3
Monasterio 1
O'Hearn 1
Inn 4
Capra 1
Cook 1
Inn 5
Thaiss 1
Inn 6
Yorke 3
Inn 7
Liendo 2
Inn 8
Gasper 2
Flores 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 659 plays
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Y. Rodriguez struck out swinging.
· ·
BOS 7·PIT 9
+1pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Cam Sanders pitches to Yophery Rodriguez
· ·
BOS 7·PIT 9
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Thaiss struck out looking.
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
+2pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Cam Sanders pitches to Matt Thaiss
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Liendo grounded out to shortstop.
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
+2pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Cam Sanders pitches to Abraham Liendo
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Sanders relieved Clevinger
·
BOS 7·PIT 9
R. Flores as designated hitter.
BOS 7·PIT 9
Top of the 9th inning
BOS 7·PIT 9
End of the 8th inning
BOS 7·PIT 9
· ·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Jebb flied out to right.
· ·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
BOS 7·PIT 9
Recap · MLB
ittsburgh Pirates held off Boston Red Sox, 9–7.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands