Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+1HOU

MIA

6-7

HOU

4-7-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,708 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Liam HicksMIA
1.3± 0.7high
Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Liam HicksMIA
2.0± 1.9high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Liam HicksMIA
0.7± 0.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

HOU

.724

OPS

.719

.726

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.45

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.73

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

MIA 4 · HOU 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	4
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Pauley3B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. RuizRF	.133	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MackC	.167	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. ConineLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
M. EtzelLF	.364	3	0	2	2	0	1	1
B. JonesCF	.333	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
J. Berry1B	.000	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. BastidasSS	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. Jasso1B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Miller2B	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaCF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. O'DonnellCF	.286	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. McDowellOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MatheusSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Beshears1B	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. CabaSS	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team		35	4	11	4	0	9	7

Player

.250

.133

.167

.250

.364

.333

.000

.167

.182

.500

.500

.250

.286

.000

.000

.500

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	2	40
J. JunkSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
B. BlalockSP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	28
C. GibsonRP	2.0	4	3	3	0	3	40
N. BelgraveRP	1.1	1	1	0	2	1	39
Team	8.1	10	5	4	3	8	163

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.1

Team

8.1

163

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ColeLF	.143	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LoperfidoLF	.211	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.083	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.316	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Winkler2B	.357	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.222	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. AllenSS	.294	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. PowellSS	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Biggers2B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RamirezSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.154	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. FreyOF	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. WhitakerRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Nelson3B	.250	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. JanekC	.444	2	2	1	2	1	0	1
P. Ferreras2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	10	5	1	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AlexanderRP	3.0	2	0	0	2	1	48
R. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	24
J. MurrayRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	26
M. KnorrRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	11
A. SantaRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	1	30
S. CarlsonSP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	20
A. MaldonadoRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	25
Team	9.0	11	4	4	9	7	184

Team

MIA

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs MIA.