Athletics vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 7, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

ATH

4-9

CHC

7-8

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

13,574 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Gage JumpATH
5.7± 2.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.1± 2.8medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 2.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.8high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.2± 2.5high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

CHC

.734

OPS

.719

▶

.743

.326

OBP

.319

▶

.338

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.94

5.02

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.25

1.45

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

ATH 3 · CHC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
CHC	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LangeliersC	.280	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Ibanez2B	.300	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
B. Harris3B	.167	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. ServenC	.333	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. MarloweOF	.292	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. De VriesSS	.364	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
E. Angeles3B	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. LaskoCF	.118	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. ElliottLF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. ThomasRF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sprague-LottSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConnC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	3	1	3	10

Player

.280

.300

.167

.333

.292

.364

.167

.118

.235

.125

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarnettRP	3.0	5	2	2	3	2	64
H. HarrisRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	20
J. SternerRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	30
J. GossSP	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	25
Team	8.0	8	4	4	5	8	139

Player

3.0

2.0

1.1

1.2

Team

8.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
N. Hoerner2B	.231	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.250	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.385	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.353	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Ramirez2B	.368	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. HartshornOF	.400	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. SnellLF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. TriceC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Alvarez1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. Bowser3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lu. EspinozaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Le. EspinozaCF	.500	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
O. AyersC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Halbach3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	4	8	4	2	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	3.2	5	3	3	0	3	62
G. KippP	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	25
R. MartinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
G. HollowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
J. NeelyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
J. BrighamRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	10	139

Team

ATH

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs ATH.