
KC
5-7-1

LAD
10-4
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.2%
ensemble · KC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
LAD
.707
OPS
.719
▶.790
.315
OBP
.319
▶.347
4.20
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.36
4.88
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.43
1.44
WHIP
1.31
▶1.12
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
KC 0 · LAD 6 (by 6)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
KC · top performer

Elih Marrero
C
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
LAD · top performer

Miguel Rojas
SS
3-3
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning
MLB · Box scoreADVANCED
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .167 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .263 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .091 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .400 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .176 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .357 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .300 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .400 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .167 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .750 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 29 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 42 | |
| 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 114 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .474 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .455 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .476 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .143 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .263 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .125 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .111 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .391 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .300 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .381 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .111 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .071 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 136 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
3
Hits
13
0
Runs
6
0
Errors
1
Team stats
KC
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
0
Runs
6
3
Hits
13
0
Errors
1
3
TB
16
0
HR
0
5
BB
2
13
K
5
13
LOB
18
Season series
LAD lead series 1-0
How it ended
LAD beat KC 6-0. M. Rojas led the way — 3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS.
Win probability
LAD vs KC
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBetts · doubled to center, Freeman scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
KC won 0 · LAD won 2
Inn 1
Freeman 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Freeman 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 544 plays
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Gentry struck out swinging.
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Wyatt Mills pitches to Tyler Gentry
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Ramirez struck out swinging.
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Wyatt Mills pitches to Ramon Ramirez
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Martin walked, Scott to second.
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Wyatt Mills pitches to Rudy Martin
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
J. Johnson fouled out to catcher.
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
Wyatt Mills pitches to Justin Johnson
· ·
KC 0·LAD 6
·
KC 0·LAD 6
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers held off Kansas City Royals, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page