Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 5, 2026

FINAL+15MIN

MIN

3-8-1

150

NYY

9-3

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

8,483 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.9± 2.0medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.9± 3.1medium

Hits

Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.2high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
1.1± 0.9high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Brooks LeeMIN
2.1± 2.2high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 1.8high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.9± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 1.3high
Josh BellMIN
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

NYY

.732

OPS

.719

▶

.743

.321

OBP

.319

.320

4.84

Runs / G

4.50

4.88

4.87

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.36

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 15 · NYY 0 (by 15)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
MIN	0	1	1	2	5	6	0	15
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. LeeSS	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.333	4	1	3	4	1	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. WallnerRF	.250	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.333	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.267	2	2	1	1	0	2	1
R. KreidlerCF	.154	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
N. CardenasC	.333	4	2	2	3	0	0	2
K. CulpepperSS	.286	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. RosarioRF	.571	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
H. MendezOF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. GonzalezRF	.583	2	1	2	2	0	0	0
E. RodriguezCF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Sabato1B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Schobel2B	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RossSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	15	16	14	2	5	10

Player

.222

.333

.167

.250

.333

.278

.267

.154

.333

.286

.571

.143

.583

.375

.125

.143

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	4.0	1	0	0	2	3	54
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	23
E. OrzeRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	27
Team	6.0	2	0	0	6	6	104

Player

T. BradleySP

4.0

K. FunderburkRP

1.0

E. OrzeRP

1.0

Team

6.0

104

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.071	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DominguezRF	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. BellingerLF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. StantonDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.176	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J.C. EscarraC	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.444	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. BrownLF	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. JonesCF	.308	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. EllisCF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. FernandezRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Martinez Jr.1B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. SanchezC	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		18	0	2	0	0	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BlackburnRP	2.1	3	2	2	2	3	56
G. GilbertRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
C. WinquestRP	1.0	2	2	1	1	1	26
A. ChivilliRP	0.2	5	6	6	1	2	33
C. ZaffiroP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
M. AriasSP	0.1	3	5	5	1	1	30
P. RodriguezRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	5
P. KohnSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	6.2	16	15	14	5	10	185

Team

MIN

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs MIN.